The war just got bigger. Bitcoin briefly got smaller.
Bitcoin dipped to $65,112 early Monday morning, its lowest level since the February crash, before reversing to $67,402 as Asian markets opened.
The 24-hour range of $65,112 to $67,389 reflects a market that sold hard on escalation headlines overnight and found buyers near $65,000, a level not tested since the opening weekend of the war five weeks ago.
Ethereum recovered 2% to $2,044, Solana rose 0.9% to $83.48 and XRP added 1.4% to $1.35. However, 24-hour green across the board masks a rougher weekly picture. BTC is still down 1% on the week, ETH 0.9%, XRP 1.9% and SOL 3.7%. Tron is the one name in the green, up 2.6% on the day and 4.6% on the week, quietly outpacing the entire majors complex.
The escalation this time came from several directions simultaneously. Iran-backed Houthi forces entered the conflict, opening a new front beyond the direct US-Israel-Iran theater. Additional US troops arrived in the Middle East, raising fears of a ground operation.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is weighing a military operation to extract uranium from Iran, although no decision has been made. And Iran attacked two aluminum production sites in the region, sending the metal up as much as 6% and extending the economic damage of the war beyond oil and into industrial commodities.
Brent crude rose 2.5% to around $115 a barrel. barrel, now up about 90% year-to-date. Asian shares fell sharply, with South Korea’s benchmark down 3.2% on a sell-off in tech stocks and Japan’s Nikkei down 3.4%. S&P 500 futures took losses and traded broadly flat, suggesting some stabilization after the initial reaction.
The $65,112 low means something technically. That level is within range of the $64,000 low from February 28, the day the war started. Bitcoin has spent five weeks building a pattern of higher lows at each escalation, from $64,000 to $66,000 to $68,000 to $69,400 to $70,596.
Monday’s dip below $66,000 is the first time in weeks that the floor has moved lower instead of higher. Whether that restores and reestablishes the uptrend or marks the beginning of a break below the range that has held since the war began is the question for the rest of the day.
Meanwhile, oil at $115 and aluminum rising on direct attacks on manufacturing facilities means the inflationary impact extends beyond energy to industrial supply chains. This makes the Fed’s position even more difficult and the timeline for the rate cut even more distant.
