Bitcoin investors may not feel exactly that, but BTC has been a relatively good effort since President Trump’s customs plans last week resulted in historical losses in traditional markets. While shares and other mainstream investments have fallen from a cliff since the “Liberation Day” message on April 2, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable to lose “only” 8% of its value.
“I think this is the most bullish 8% step -down I’ve ever seen in Bitcoin,” said Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale research, a leading crypto investment manager.
Based on historical data, you would expect Bitcoin to have three times volatility in Nasdaq, Pandl said. And yet, while Nasdaq was down with 15% at the beginning of trade April 8 (compared to April 2), Bitcoin was nowhere near 45% down.
In other words, a 8% decrease is a positive, as historical patterns predicted a long steeper tumble.
“I think cryptoinvestors should be very pleased with the modest withdrawal in Bitcoin,” Pandl, a former analyst at Goldman Sachs, told Coindesk.
“It reflects that customs rates yourself are a short-term risk-off event for markets, must of course be something that supports Bitcoin resolution in the longer term. I think the relatively moderate feature reflects it,” he added.
Pandl is Bullish on Bitcoin in an environment where the dollar potentially loses its place as a global reserve currency.
“Stagflation will be negative for equities and bonds, and historically, it has been positive for scarce raw materials. Investors who are concerned about stagflation are looking for alternative assets that can generate returns. In traditional markets that may be gold or copper, and bitcoin,” he said.
Pandl says Bitcoin’s relatively good performance reflects a rotation away from large cap-tech shares against commodity assets such as Bitcoin. You can see this in the performance of Bitcoin against Roundhill “Magnificent 7 Etf.” You can now buy more of the ETF with a Bitcoin compared to a week ago.
To those who subscribe to Bitcoin’s long -term investment thesis as a safe harbor in uncertain times, the last few days have been a test case where Bitcoin wins. In theory, these proponents, Bitcoin, say should benefit as investors seek alternatives to dollars in times of stress.
“If you think the erosion of the dollar position is part of the Bitcoin thesis, your belief in this thesis should have gone up in the last week,” says Pandl.
He expects Bitcoin’s award to rise in the medium term and reach new all times this year.
“The price of Bitcoin is down, but conviction is up and there is no need to change the prospects in the medium term,” he said.