Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe haven assets like gold in the two months following major global crises, according to new analysis from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The study, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the Latin American crypto platform, examined 60-day windows after economic or geopolitical shocks such as the COVID-19 outbreak and US tariff escalations. Bitcoin outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 in each of the periods analyzed.
Last April, after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs, the price of bitcoin rose 24% over the following 60 days. Gold rose 8% and the S&P 500 rose 4%, the firm found.
A similar pattern emerged at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, with BTC rising by 21% while the other assets lagged behind.
Szuster warned that judging bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.
“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it’s going to end,” he said. “In moments like this, investors sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and even defensive assets can fall.”
It comes as investors scramble for liquidity, yet bitcoin has consistently bounced back, the firm found. The pattern appears to be repeating itself in the current conflict between the US and Iran, with bitcoin the only one of the three assets in positive territory so far, according to Szuster.
Data backs this up. Since the war started, bitcoin is up more than 2.2%, from around $65,800 to $67,300 at the time of writing. Gold, the traditional safe haven, meanwhile, has fallen about 11%, while the S&P lost 4.4% of its value in the index’s steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Despite its volatility, bitcoin was the best-performing asset over the past decade, he added.
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