Investors seeking both safety and growth appear to have reached an unexpected consensus in 2025, namely bitcoin fails to capture any of the trade.
That sentiment is evident in a year-to-date comparison of major, broadly tracked assets, including stocks, gold, the 10-year Treasury note, bitcoin, industrial metals like copper and the dollar index.
Gold, a traditional safe haven and inflation hedge, has surged 70% to a record high above $4,450 per ounce. ounce, outperforming all other major assets by a wide margin. Copper, widely regarded as a barometer of global economic health, is the next best performer with a 35% gain, according to source TradingView.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 17% and 21%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury bond has lost 9% and bitcoin has fallen 6 per cent. The dollar index, which tracks the US dollar against a basket of fiat currencies, is down nearly 10%.
The fact that polar opposites – gold, the ultimate hedge of fear, and copper, a major industrial anchor with AI links – are the top two, while BTC, the supposed digital gold and high-end technology, is down, suggests a shift in investor preference for physical assets in light of macro and political concerns and the AI boom.
Early in the year, haven demand, driven by macro and political issues and fears of fiat degradation, coupled with the AI boom and a positive evolving legislative outlook under the Trump presidency, were widely cited as ultrabullish tailwinds for BTC. But it has not come to anything.
This is mainly because the crypto community favors BTC as digital gold rather than new technology, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
“The new narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ has failed to fully convince Wall Street investors. Many crypto narratives marketed to institutional investors now resemble passive allocation stories, stake returns or long-term value preservation, rather than compelling use-case-driven growth themes,” Thielen told CoinDesk.
“However, there is little evidence that a new group of investors is meaningfully attracted to passive crypto exposures, limiting new capital inflows,” he added.
Investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven amid rising fiscal concerns across the advanced world, tariff-led political tensions, fears of fiat debasement and a potential threat to the Fed’s independence.
At the same time, investors looked past BTC as the high-end tech, even as the AI boom delivered a massive headwind to a variety of assets, from obvious tech stocks to the record-breaking rally in base metals like copper.
The red metal has been driven higher by the overlapping trend of electrification, digital infrastructure and geopolitical tension along with slower supply growth, as the Geopolitical Monitor recently noted.
BTC lacks sovereign bid
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, attributed BTC’s dismal performance to the absence of a sovereign bid for the cryptocurrency.
“Gold is the ‘hard asset’ for global central banks and sovereign players. As sovereigns hedge their assets away from USD FX, Gold has been the beneficiary,” Magadini told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a more ‘portable’ asset for individuals to hedge their FX deterioration risk.”
He explained that BTC, which is more speculative, has a demand base of investors with higher risk tolerance, such as retail investors, hedge funds and investment firms, rather than established sovereign entities.
“At least that’s the case today. Hence the big performance divergence in 2025,” he said, adding that the next leg higher in BTC needs sovereign adoption as ETF adoption, positive regulatory outlook and digital asset treasury narratives have been fully priced in.
The rise in gold since 2023 is partly driven by increased central bank purchases, particularly in Asian countries. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks bought 254 tons of gold from January to October.
Building energy
While bears may see BTC’s inability to capture a haven and AI bid as a sign of inherent weakness, that’s not necessarily the case, according to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital, who said the cryptocurrency is building energy for a major rally.
“Gold’s breakout is not a bearish signal for Bitcoin. Gold has been leading BTC by about 26 weeks, and its consolidation last summer matches Bitcoin’s pause today. The metal’s renewed strength reflects a market that is increasingly pricing in further currency depreciation and fiscal strain into 2026 – a backdrop that has consistently responded with Bitcoin’s large assets,” Hartorque said consistently with Bitcoins.
He added that BTC’s consolidation therefore builds energy rather than signaling weakness.
“The longer BTC sits tight, the more explosive the eventual move tends to be – positioning it to react strongly as the debasement trade accelerates,” Harland said.
Important takeaways for the global economy
Gold and copper are outperforming other assets, but gold’s stronger rally over copper signals that markets are betting on two conflicting futures simultaneously: AI-driven growth (copper) versus fears of systemic failure from unsustainable fiscal debt (gold).
More importantly, gold’s outperformance shows anxiety that the global financial system is offsetting the AI-led boom.
While both gold and copper have hit record highs this year, the copper-to-gold ratio, a barometer of global economic health and risk sentiment, has fallen nearly 20% to its lowest in more than two decades, according to data source TradingView. It’s a telling sign of the global economy in a “late-cycle” environment, or “fragile expansion,” fueled by artificial intelligence but weighed down by fiscal, trade and geopolitical concerns.
The main takeaway is the flight to tangibility. When gold, copper hits record highs and the dollar index, Treasuries and stocks underperform, it means that the market no longer trusts “promises of paper (fiat) currencies” or assets that are pure bets on fiat liquidity.
