Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is trading around $109,000 as Hong Kong begins its working day as traders continue to digest comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that another rate cut is not a sure thing, cooling demand for BTC ETFs and other risk assets.
Polymarket traders are now assigning a 71% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, down sharply from around 90% before Powell’s remarks. The probability of no change has risen to 26%, showing how quickly traders recalibrated expectations after the press conference.
According to CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, US investor demand for crypto has cooled sharply. Spot bitcoin ETFs posted a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, one of the weakest readings since April, while ether inflows have nearly ground to a halt. Coinbase premiums for both coins have flattened to near zero and the CME futures basis has fallen to multi-year lows, signaling that both institutional and retail traders are taking profits rather than adding exposure.
On-chain analysis from Glassnode paints a similar picture of waning conviction. Bitcoin continues to struggle below the short-term holder cost base of around $113,000, with long-term holders distributing around 104,000 BTC per month. Transfer volume from these wallets to exchanges has increased to $293 million per day, suggesting that savvy investors are cashing in on weakened demand.
The broader crypto market reflected this weariness. Solana fell 8% Thursday, as CoinDesk previously reported, to $186 despite the launch of the first US spot Solana ETFs.
Bitwise’s BSOL pulled in $116 million in two days and Grayscale’s GSOL attracted $1.4 million, but the token’s decline wiped out its year-over-year gains. Sentiment was further dampened by large on-chain transfers from Jump Crypto to Galaxy Digital, giving rise to portfolio reshuffle speculation.
With muted volatility readings and balanced positioning, traders are now eyeing the Fed’s next move. Right now, Polymarket traders are assigning a 55% chance of no change, which has risen marginally since Powell’s latest comments.
When the US government officially reopens and data is released that paint a worse picture of the economy than is currently known, Powell’s position may change. And crypto traders will be watching.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin fell about 5% over the past 24 hours to around $109,800, giving back its earlier weekly gains as traders reacted to Powell’s hawkish comments and fading U.S. ETF inflows.
ETH: Ether fell 1.8% to around $3,850, extending its month-long slide as inflows into U.S. spot ETFs slowed to near zero and futures demand weakened.
Gold: Gold fell $16.50 to $3,984.70 and silver fell to $47.89 as Powell’s hawkish comments after the Fed’s rate cut dampened hopes for further easing and lifted Treasury yields.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific shares rose on Friday after Trump and Xi agreed to ease trade tensions in South Korea, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising more than 1% to a fresh record.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Drake, Adin Ross Sued For ‘Deeply Fraudulent’ Promotion Of Cryptocasino Bets (Decrypt)
- UFC-sanctioned FIGHT Token Sale Raises $183M, Exceeds $1.5M Goal (CoinDesk)
- Western Union Files Trademark for ‘WUUSD’ One Day After USDPT Stablecoin Reveal (Decrypt)
