Over 160 publicly traded companies have now adopted bitcoin as a central financial strategy, collectively holding nearly one million BTC, about 4% of the circulating supply. What began as a bold experiment by one company has turned into a global playbook: raise capital, buy bitcoin and live partial equity exposure to bitcoin through a listed vehicle. These stocks are not traded on earnings or cash flow, but on their ability to deliver bitcoin per share. The question now is not whether the BTC treasury model can be implemented, but what comes next in terms of risks and opportunities?
The first era – from narrative to replication
The opening chapter of Bitcoin’s treasury companies was defined by narrative and replication. Michael Saylor’s strategy (born MicroStrategy) showed that raising equity at a premium to NAV, converting it to BTC and never selling could turn a software company into a $100 billion proxy for Bitcoin.
From Tokyo’s Metaplanet, US healthcare company Semler Scientific to London’s Smarter Web Company, the template spread. But premium multiples cannot sustain themselves on storytelling and BTC holdings alone. For this model to survive its teenage years, companies may need to justify NAV multiples above one in more sustainable ways.
The next levers for bitcoin tax companies
Handle One: Yield as an Edge
Just as REITs mature from landlords to yield machines, bitcoin tax companies will need to demonstrate that they can generate incremental Bitcoin per share. stock instead of just sitting on their stack.
This could come through BTC-backed lending, Lightning infrastructure, or new financial products that can monetize balance sheet holdings. For example, locking BTC into payment channels in Lightning allows the BTC holder to charge fees for providing this liquidity, potentially providing returns. But all return strategies involve risks that must be considered and managed, for example credit and counterparty risk. Without a yield engine, dilution can eventually catch up and mNAV can compress towards one.
Lever 2: Leverage (risk weighted)
The winners in the last bear market were not those with the largest balance sheets, but those who structured capital to survive forced liquidation. Some BTC treasury companies are currently considering the relative value of pledging their BTC as collateral in BTC-backed loans to be lent in USD. This USD can then be invested as the company sees fit, for example to earn returns or buy more Bitcoin. But this type of activity requires rigorous risk management and cash flow and scenario modeling. Gearing reinforces the reflexive flywheel, but it requires discipline: raise only to a premium, never against hard safety, and keep run times long enough to ride bikes.
Lever three: Complementary business models
The third lever is to provide complementary business models or “picks and shovels” in the Bitcoin economy. Some Bitcoin finance companies are already making infrastructure plays: data centers, decentralized AI computing, bitcoin-native software or business services.
This dual model can transform them from pure NAV arbitrage to operational cash flow platforms. That could make them not just bitcoin proxies, but stock growth stories. There are parallels with companies from the dotcom era that eventually grew into the major technology infrastructure providers of today, often including themselves sitting on significant cash positions: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook et al.
Towards professionalization and institutionalization
The reflexive phase of the bitcoin treasury model is ending. As the flywheel slows, companies are professionalizing their Bitcoin treasury strategies: designing capital stacks for resilience, perhaps generating Bitcoin dividends without diluting exposure per share. share and develop lines of business that tie them to a broader digital asset infrastructure.
Those that succeed can justify sustained premiums over NAV, institutionalize their shareholder base and become the bitcoin-native equivalents of REITs, tech giants or energy majors. There is a risk that those who remain static may slip into irrelevance, perhaps even trading in the stock markets like closed-end funds without growth.
The next game – beyond buying bitcoin
The next game probably isn’t about buying Bitcoin; that playbook is already written. It’s about building the financial architecture to keep mNAV above one, cycle after cycle.
The companies that crack the code won’t just be proxies for Bitcoin. They could be the equity layer in a new monetary system.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the author’s views at the time of writing. It does not constitute financial advice, investment analysis or an inducement to engage in investment activity. References to Bitcoin, corporate strategies or publicly traded companies are for illustrative purposes only.
Greengage & Co. Limited is not authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment, crypto trading or regulated lending services. This content is for informational use and is primarily intended for institutional and professional audiences and is not designed for retail investors.
Crypto assets and related investments are high risk. You can lose all the money you invest. These products are not protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) or the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS).
