Looking back to 2025, the sound money, or debasement trade, was decisively won by the metals over bitcoin. Gold delivered one of its best years ever, up 65%, while bitcoin is down 7% so far.
Until August, the two assets had similar returns, both up around 30%. From that point on, gold rose while bitcoin rolled over sharply.
This divergence reinforced that gold won the debasement trade narrative, leaving bitcoin firmly behind.
Bitcoin remains in recovery mode after a 36% correction from its October high, struggling in the $80,000 range.
Despite the price weakness, capital flows tell a different story.
Bitwise CEO Bradley Duke pointed out that bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) flows exceeded gold ETP flows in 2025, despite gold’s blockbuster year.
The debut of US spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked a year of institutional adoption, while year two saw continued strong participation, although the price did not follow.
The most notable takeaway from this current correction in bitcoin is the resilience of the ETF investor. Despite a 36% price decline, total bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) fell less than 4%.
Data from Checkonchain shows US ETFs had 1.37 million BTC at their peak in October and still hold around 1.32 million as of December 19. This suggests that the bulk of the selling did not come from ETF holders. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has increased its dominance during this correction and now has just under 60% market share with around 780,000 BTC under management.
It is clear to see that bitcoin’s correction was not driven by ETF outflows.
