Asia-focused Tiger Research has set a Q3 price target of $ 190,000 for Bitcoin (BTC), which argues that record global liquidity, structural ETF demand and new 401 (K) access give the market its strongest setup since 2021.
Tigers model breaks a “base price” of $ 135,000, then layer on multipliers for basic elements (+3.5%) and macro ratio (+35%) to reach $ 190,000 forecast – giving 67%from this week’s average $ 113,000.
The report is dependent on three key strikers. M2 money that exceeds $ 90 trillion, ETF and business accumulation now accounts for 6% of Bitcoin’s supply, and a legislative green light that has opened US pension accounts to Krypto.
Trump’s executive order that allows 401 (K) exposure adds what Tiger calls “a definitive signal of Bitcoin’s transition to a core institutional possession.” Even an award of 1% from $ 8.9 trillion pool would equate to nearly $ 90 billion demand.
Accumulation is visible. ETFs have collected 1.3 million BTC, while Strategy (MSTR) owns more than 629,000 coins worth $ 71 billion. Buying through convertible bonds has given the streams a structural quality. Transfer quantities are also leaning larger, with fewer transactions, but larger sizes, reflecting a turn from retail traffic to institutional block activity.
The report still admits that the network looks unbalanced. Daily transactions and active users remain well at last year’s heights and retail participation has faded. New initiatives such as BTCFI are needed to reign activity beyond institutional wallets.
Meters on the chain are also flashing caution. MVRV-Z, which tracks how far the market price has stretched over what proprietors originally paid, sits on 2.49-one zone, which in previous bikes has gone ahead of corrections when the profits are built up.
Adjusted output profit ratio (ASOPR) is 1,019, which means coins sold are only slightly in excess, suggesting that dealers lock in modest gains instead of paying out at extremes.
Net unrealized surplus/loss (SUPL), a measure of unrealized profits and losses across the network, is 0.558, indicating a healthy but not yet euphoric positioning. Overall, the data suggests a market that is hot but not yet overexposed.
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