This is a daily analysis of the top -tokens with CME futures by Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Bull Market withdrawal in progress
Bitcoin
Market rally has stopped over the last day as expected, but instead of consolidation, prices have withdrawn over 5% to $ 116,800 from record heights in a move typically for a bull market withdrawal. Reports suggest that profit from long -term holders weighs Cryptocurrency’s award.
It is common for the markets to revise breakout points, in this case, on May 22 high at around $ 111,960, and test the underlying purchase interest before printing larger events. A similar dynamic played earlier this year when prices fell from over $ 100,000 of $ 75,000, which revised the breakout point from the end of 2024.
From a technical analysis perspective, the wider Bullish Bias wins, while prices will remain locked in the rising channel on the daily chart. Over the next 24 hours, the focus will be on the hourly map showing a steep corrective trend lower, with prices acting under the Ichimoku cloud to suggest that bearish momentum.
However, the RSI on the hourly card has dropped below 30, indicating an oversold state-one sharp contrast to the above 70 or overbought reading seen a day ago. So a rejection cannot be excluded. The probability of a withdrawal to $ 111,960 would be weakened if the potential recovery ends the downward trending channel. Such a movement is likely to result in fresh record heights.
Open interest is approaching record high
Volatility can remain high as the cumulative open interest in onshore and offshore futures and offshore eternal futures has risen to 734.82K BTC, which is just shy for the record 744K BTC in October 2022, according to Data Source Coingeeckko.
The growth in open interest is probably led by offshore exchanges as the number of active contracts on CME remains under May high, with the three-month annual basis still below 10%. Conversely, the annual financing rates on offshore varieties have topped 11%, indicating a growing demand for the bullish exposure.
Move index becomes higher
The moving index, which measures 30-day suggested volatility in the US Treasury, has the resettlement of a critical level that has consistently predicted sharp spikes in market volatility since 2024.
It is a reason for concern for bulls because volatility tips in the Treasury Market tend to lead to financial tightening, a risk-off development. Since 2024, Bottoms in Move has also marked preliminary BTC price tops.
Be careful that the story repeats itself, leading to a deeper BTC Bull Market Backlay.
- AI’s Take: Bitcoin’s 5% withdrawal is a healthy bull market feature with the aim of re -testing the most important breakout level of $ 111,960 before they potentially initiated a stronger demonstration.
- Resistance: $ 118,000-118,500, $ 120,000, $ 123,181
- Support: $ 113,688 (38.2% FIB Retracement of the Rally from June 22 Low)$ 111,965, $ 107,823 (61.8% FIB)
XRP: Holding 100-hour MA and Sky Support
XRP
has fallen from $ 3 and appears to be caught in a downward channel on the hourly map that mirrors BTC. Still, XRP looks relatively better and holds the confluence of the 100-hour simple sliding average (SMA) and the Ichimoku cloud for $ 2.81.
A breakout from here would entail a cessation of correction and resumption of the wider increase towards the annual top of $ 3.4. On the way higher, the bulls are likely to be tested again at about $ 3.
Keep an eye on the move under the Ichimoku cloud as it would strengthen the instant bear box, shifting focus to 200-hour SMA to $ 2.6.
Again, volatility could be raised with eternal futures open interest, which hits a record height of 2.74 billion XRP, according to Coinglass. The annual XRP financing rates are hovering at 15%, indicating a growing bias for geared bullish acting.
- AI’s Take: Despite the XRP’s Timing Card showing a BTC mirroring downward from $ 3, its strong grip is over the 100-hour SMA and Ichimoku-Sky to $ 2.81 signals underlying support. Registration of eternal futures open interest rates and high financing rates indicates significant geared bullish demand, making a breakout of $ 3, against $ 3.4, probably if the current support holds.
- Resistance: $ 3, $ 3.4
- Support: $ 2.81, $ 2.6- $ 2.65, $ 2.38
ETH: Awaiting Breakout
Ether (Eth) stays trapped in an expanding triangle, with the daily stochastic flashing an overbought reading pointing to stretched upward momentum, which weakens the case for a fixed breakout in the short term. A consolidation around the resistance looks likely as prices are firm over the ichimoku cloud on the daily chart and short-term SMAS point north, indicating a bullish bias. Any breakout would shift the focus to $ 3,400, a level targeted by option dealers.
- AI’s Take: The daily stochastic, which is overbought, indicates that momentum is stretched, making a compelling push over the upper trend line unlikely in the short term.
- Resistance: $ 3,067 (61.8% FIB Retracement)$ 3,500, $ 3,570, $ 4,000.
- Support: $ 2,905, $ 2,880, $ 2,739, $ 2,600
SOL: $ 168 is the new resistance level
The sun’s upside remains evasive despite the double outbreak on the daily chart. Since Friday, Bulls has failed at least twice to chew through bearish pressure of about $ 168, as shown in the long upper wicks attached to the lights for Monday and Friday. So there is now a need for a break over $ 168 to confirm Bullishness.
On the downside, the $ 157 level is to see as it marks the neckline support for the double top pattern on the hourly card. A breakdown of the support line would entail the potential for a deeper decline to $ 146 according to the measured method of movement.
- AI’s Take: Dealers need to look for a final break over $ 168 to confirm Bullish Continuation; Otherwise, a loss of $ 157 neckline support can trigger a deeper decline against $ 146.
- Resistance: $ 168, $ 180- $ 190, $ 200.
- Support: $ 157, $ 145, $ 125.
