A Bitcoin (BTC) Breakout Earlier this week, retailers have seen the $ 100,000 level in the coming days, a euphoric trade that could be short-lived as May’s seasonal provision is approaching.

“Historically, the next few months have been weak for the financial markets, where many investors complied with sales in May and go away with sayings,” Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, told Coindesk in a telegram message.

“That said, the markets have been significantly underpinned in the last few months, but this year could succumb the trend, with Bitcoin hitting $ 97K, and other growth warehouses coming back in the last few weeks. In the last week’s weak GDP numbers coming out of the United States indicates a certain risk, as another report on negative could lead to a rebound like too, ”me.

The sayings “Sell in May and Go Away” are a long -standing seasonal proverb in traditional financial markets.

It suggests that investors must sell their inventory in early May and return to the market around November, based on the belief that stock markets are underpinning during the summer due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional activity and historical return data.

The term dates back to the early days of London Stock Exchange and was originally “selling in May and going away, returning to St. Lege’s Day”, which refers to a horse race in mid -September.

What data shows

Historically, US stock markets have shown weaker performance from May to October than from November to April, leading to the strategy becoming a seasonal thumb for some investors.

Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often affected by macro cycles, institutional currents and retail atmosphere. Coinglass data shows that the asset’s May benefit has been negative or muted recently.

By 2021, BTC fell 35%, one of the worst months that year. By 2022, May was again negative with a fall of 15% in the middle of Luna’s collapse. By 2023, BTC was flat to mildly positive, reflecting muted volatility. BTC showed up 11% last May and ended May 2019 up 52% ​​- a prominent performance from all months after 2018, when crypto markets are generally believed to have matured after the year’s alto cycle.

Red May months will be followed by several falls in June, the data shows where four of the last five June months ending with red.

These patterns do not guarantee future benefits, they suggest that crypto markets can increasingly respond to the same macro and seasonal mood as shares, especially when more institutional capital enters space.

Signs of caution?

Dealers can be cautious based on historical price seasonal determination and fading momentum after strong Q1 events. Altcoins, especially meme coins, can be particularly vulnerable to retraction in view of their recent hype-driven events and speculative currents.

“Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average gain of only 1.8% from May to October, with a positive return for about 65% of the six-month period-good during the stronger performance seen from November to April,” Vugar Usi Zade, COO in Crypto Exchange, told Coindesk in a telegram division.

Over the past 12 years, average Q2 returns (April-June) for BTC have stood at 26%, but with a median of only 7.5%sign of outlier-driven performance and recurring volatility.

At 3rd quarter (July-September), the average return falls to 6%and the median becomes a bit negative, suggesting a pattern of retirement of Q2 or consolidation, Zade added, citing data.

“This seasonal overlap suggests caution on the way into May. Historically, Q4 Bitcoin’s strongest seasonal period marks with an average return of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, while Q3 tends to deliver more muted or negative results,” Zade said.

In short, while Wall Street calendars do not tie crypto, market psychology is still responding to tales, and “selling in May” could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if technical begins to crack and feelings tilt.