Bitcoins The latest slide may feel ominous, but K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde says December could mark a turning point for the cryptocurrency. After its steepest correction since the last bear market, the firm sees more evidence of a recovery than another collapse.
BTC has been weighed down by a wave of selling, much of it structural. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had been the market’s biggest buyers, turned into net sellers in November. CME futures activity has fallen to a multi-year low, signaling TradFi’s hesitation. Bitcoin’s price, meanwhile, has underperformed stocks, hitting its weakest level against the Nasdaq since late 2024.
But K33 sees a market overreacting to distant threats while lacking near-term strength signals. “The material upside rationale is far more plausible than an 80% drawdown repeat,” the firm wrote in its December outlook.
They point to several factors. First, bitcoin is trading near strong historical support levels — around $70,000 to $80,000 — while broader positioning in futures remains cautious, not overheated. The perpetual markets show low leverage, and major liquidations have not occurred despite price pressure.
Long-term fears, such as quantum computing risks, potential bitcoin sell-off strategy (MSTR), or instability at Tether, may sound dramatic, but are unlikely to hit anything anytime soon. K33 notes that each of these threats is years away from posing a real risk and should not be the driving force behind today’s price movements.
Instead, the firm argues, the focus should be on what lies ahead in the short term. With supportive policy changes on the horizon, including possible 401(k) access to crypto, and a pro-crypto shift at the Federal Reserve, K33 sees structural upside building. Bitcoin’s current valuation, they say, reflects fear more than fundamentals.
So far, the market remains cautious. But K33’s outlook suggests that December may offer a window for bold positioning.
