Bitcoin has room to run — and fast — according to a new forecast from JPMorgan analysts that sees the cryptocurrency reaching as high as $170,000 within the next six to 12 months.
In a note published this week, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team said the recent deleveraging in crypto derivatives, particularly bitcoin perpetual futures, is largely behind the market, setting the stage for renewed upside.
“The message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the report said, citing sell-offs in October and November that followed a wave of liquidations and the $120 million Balancer exercise.
The bank’s price projection is based on a comparison with gold. Bitcoin has long been positioned as “digital gold,” but JPMorgan’s model suggests it is currently trading well below where it should be when adjusted for risk. Their framework assumes that bitcoin consumes 1.8 times more venture capital than gold, and given the $6.2 trillion in private investment in gold via ETFs, bars and coins, bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to grow by two-thirds — from about $2.1 trillion — to match that exposure. That carries a price tag of $170,000, up from about $102,000 today.
That’s a sharp turnaround from late 2024, when bitcoin was trading well above this model’s estimated value.
Today, it’s about $68,000 below the gold-based fair value benchmark, the team says.
The call comes at a time of changing investor behavior across asset classes. Retail investors continue to buy US stocks and gold, but with gold volatility ticking higher, bitcoin may increasingly become the hedge of choice against equity risk, the note suggests. Recent gold purchases by central banks and retail buyers have increased in dollar terms, but bitcoin now appears to be more attractive from a risk-adjusted point of view.
JPMorgan downplayed fears that a tightening of US bank reserves would spill over into broader markets. While liquidity among banks is strained, the broader money supply and non-bank liquidity continue to expand, supporting risk assets like stocks and crypto.
Still, the bank’s projection is not based on sentiment or momentum alone. “This is a mechanical exercise,” the team wrote.
