Bitcoin’s price fell sharply over the weekend, falling below $78,000 – its lowest level since April – as profit-taking collided with thinner liquidity and a lack of fresh buyers.
Traders told CoinDesk that a rally once supported by corporate demand, particularly from Strategy’s ( MSTR ) bitcoin purchases, has run out of steam, leaving markets vulnerable to forced selling and derivative liquidations.
For some market analysts, Saturday’s slide fits into a broader bearish pattern that has been emerging for months. Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, has argued since late October that bitcoin is in a sideways-to-downside phase and that optimism about a return to new highs — or a rotation from metals back to crypto — is misplaced “hopium” for bulls.
“That has been my view ever since [the] late October that BTC is in a sideways and bearish phase… I don’t think 80K is a low macro level for bitcoin,” Crown, which now posts crypto market updates with more than 200,000 subscribers, told CoinDesk, stressing that the recent price action could be part of a larger corrective regime.
And the action in the options market supports this bearish sentiment. Options traders are now increasingly betting that prices will fall below $75,000 and dropping their bullish bets on reaching $100,000. So much so that the dollar value of the number of active bitcoin put option contracts at the $75,000 level listed on the Deribit platform now stands at $1.159 billion, which is almost equal to the so-called nominal open interest of $1.168 billion locked in the $100,000 call option.
Read more: Here’s why bitcoin traders are now betting billions on a dip below $75,000 and betting on the price going higher
Bearish signals
Crown points to several technical indicators that have historically heralded deeper corrections.
The monthly MACD – a technical trading indicator – crossed down in November, a rare signal that has preceded prolonged declines in previous cycles.
Additionally, it crossed the weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA (another technical indicator) recently entered bearish territory. When this happens, it is typically followed by several months of losses. And the 2025 annual chart closed as a “shooting star,” a candlestick pattern that often signals a medium-term reversal.
Bitcoin to $50,000?
To make matters worse for bulls, bitcoin has diverged from traditional markets since October, falling while stocks and other risk assets held up — a pattern Crown sees as typical of late-cycle risk-off behavior.
“People generally sell the more speculative assets first,” he said.
Beyond the technicals, Crown highlights the speculative washout from October’s crash, which eliminated many leveraged altcoin positions and left traders wary of re-entering at elevated levels.
Read more: Crypto’s $19 billion ’10/10′ nightmare: Why everyone is blaming Binance for the bitcoin crash that won’t end
While not as extreme as some cyclical bears, Crown suggests bitcoin could fall to even lower levels — potentially into the $50,000 to low $60,000 zone — before stabilizing.
In fact, he says the range represents an area he is personally looking to add to his long-term positions, framing the current market as a potential value accumulation phase rather than the end of crypto’s broader cycle.
