Bitcoin (BTC) Bull, who once stares in the future, reconsider his long -term bullish conviction.
It is evident from the 180-day bias that measures the difference in implied volatility (pricing) between dismissed-listed out-of-the-money calls and put options. The metric is recently withdrawn to zero, according to the data source Amberdata, indicating that the long -term market mood has been switched from Bullish to neutral. The change is coming as some analysts warn of a bear market in 2026.
A similar reset occurred at the beginning of the previous Bitcoin Bear Market, according to Griffin Ardern, head of options and research on Crypto Financial Platform Blofin.
“I’ve noticed a rather worrying sign with the recent withdrawal of the market. Bitcoin’s Bullish atmosphere for the distant months of opportunities has disappeared, and it is now firmly neutral,” Ardern told Coindesk. “This means that the market for the options thinks it is difficult for BTC to establish a long -term uptrend and the likelihood of new heights in the coming months is falling.”
“A similar situation occurred at the end of Jan and February 2022,” he added.
A put option offers insurance against price falls in the underlying asset, while a call provides an asymmetrical bullish exposure. A positive crooked involves a bias against calls indicating bullishness on the market, while a negative skew suggests the opposite.
The neutral shift in the 180-day bias could be partially driven by structured products that sell options for higher strike calls to generate additional yields on top of the spot market stock.
The popularity of the so -called covered call strategy could drive the call that is implied volatility that is lower compared to puts.
Macro -Jitters
BTC fell over 4% last week, almost tested its previous record height of $ 11,965 when the central PCE, Fed’s favorite inflation measure, rose in June, while non -yard wages disappointed and stuck concerning the economy.
The fall in prices has pushed short -lived bias below zero, a sign of dealers seeking downward protection through puts.
According to Ardern, the inflation effects of “Supply chain impulses” are already emerging in financial data.
“Although falling car prices in the last CPI report, which offset rising prices for other goods, is one thing undeniable: the impulse of the West Coast of the Pacific has reached the East Coast, and retailers are already trying to last months,” noted ARDERN, explaining the renewed neutrality of the long -term BTC settings.
According to JPMorgan, President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise inflation in the second half of the year.
“Global core inflation is expected to rise to 3.4% (annual rate) in the second half of 2025, largely due to a customs -related US increase,” noted analysts in the investment bank, adding that cost pressure is likely to be concentrated in the US
An uptick in inflation could make it harder too fat to reduce the rates. Trump has repeatedly criticized the central bank for keeping the rates increased to 4.25%.
Dealers will receive ISM-UK-MAKING PMI later Tuesday, providing insight into inflation in the service sector, which accounts for a significant part of the US economy. It will be followed by July CPI and PPI will release later this week.
Read more: Bitcoin is still on the field for $ 140,000 this year, but 2026 will be painful: Elliott Wave Expert
