Many investors are currently watching Bitcoin through a final-of-cycle lens, suggesting that Q4 could mark the end of the current market cycle. However, two key meters point to the possibility that the bull market can actually be in its early stages.
Glassnode data shows that the 200-week sliding average (200WMA), which smooths Bitcoin’s award over a long-term horizon and historically only pulled upwards, has just violated $ 53,000.
Meanwhile, the realized price, the average price on which all bitcoin in circulation last moved onchain has just risen over 200-WMA to $ 54,000.
When we look back on previous cycles, we see a consistent pattern. In bull markets, the realized price tends to remain over 200-WMA, while in bear markets it occurs the opposite.
For example, the realized award steadily climbed in 2017 and the 2021-bull markets higher and expanded his hole over 200-WMA before eventually collapsing under it and signaling the start of the bear markets.
While the realized award during the decrease of 2022 fell under 200-WMA, it has only recently moved over it. When the realized price, when the realized price remains over this long -term moving average, Bitcoin has tended to push higher as the bull market progresses.
