Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone said Monday that collapsing crypto prices could signal broader financial stress, warning that bitcoin could return toward $10,000 and potentially herald the next U.S. recession.
In a post on X, McGlone also said the long-standing “buy the dip” mentality that has supported risk assets since 2008 could break down as digital assets weaken and volatility dynamics shift.
After rebounding to $70,841 at 07:00 UTC on February 15 from $65,395 late on February 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red on Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash have dropped 10% and 8% respectively over the past 24 hours.
“Healthy correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not on board) after collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “Buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”
McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. The US stock market value relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in about a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added.
He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding”, adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “capturing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “seep up” into stocks.
McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling with the S&P 500. Per February 13, both hovered below 7,000 on his chart. He said “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above this level if broader equity beta weakens.
The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to around $56,000 for bitcoin during his scaling, as an initial “normal return” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to return toward $10,000, contingent on a top in the US stock market.
McGlone’s view divides opinion
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes that market extremes must be resolved through collapse, and that bitcoin’s equity beta guarantees a proportional crash.
“It’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excesses through time, rotation or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.”
Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening of credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity pullout.
“It implies recession plus economic stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy failure that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”
