Where is the bottom of Bitcoin (BTC)?

While recognizing that it is possible that the level has already been hit, on-chain analyst James Check suggested that a real bottom may not be in place after Bitcoin has suffered a real capitulation event.

It would probably require a decrease in the range of $ 65,000, checked and call it “true market mean”, ie. The average cost basis for active investors.

At that time, according to Check, who spoke on the TFTC podcast, the average investor may begin to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long -term owners, including those who have been holding Bitcoin for five years, could find themselves underwater. Interestingly, this price level is in line with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a similar cost basis of about $ 67,500.

Where does the capitulation take the market?

While Check expects significant falls from the $ 65,000 area, he sees strong support in $ 49,000- $ 50,000 interval, these prices representing the launch of the ETFs in 2024, as well as a $ 1 Billion Billion Market Capital for Bitcoin. A fall to as low as $ 40,000 seems unlikely, he said, blocking a global recession.

Check also noted the extended period of “Chopsolidation” in 2024 – where Bitcoin traded for several months in a wide range between $ 50,000 and $ 70K – as the establishment of a strong foundation for support.