PUBLISHED November 16, 2025
ISLAMABAD:
Following the collapse of the Istanbul dialogue and two terrorist attacks on its soil originating from Afghanistan, any likely decision by Pakistan to simultaneously exercise options to block people and trade movement across the border and flex its security muscles could exacerbate Kabul’s woes and build internal pressure on the regime to normalize ties.
According to trade statistics, Afghanistan’s exports to Pakistan accounted for 45 percent of the country’s total exports by 2024, making Islamabad its single largest trading partner. Kabul’s heavy dependence on Islamabad and given its landlocked status, the western neighbor has limited alternatives to suddenly find a sustainable market for almost half of its exports.
From its southeastern, southern and eastern sides, Afghanistan uses three border crossing points to sell its goods to Pakistan. These are close to its agricultural products and make Pakistan an economically viable option for selling fresh fruits, vegetables and dry fruits.
According to Pakistan Customs, Kabul exported goods worth Rs 170 billion to Pakistan through these border crossings in the fiscal year 2024-25. Over 70 percent of the goods were sent through the Torkham border, followed by a fifth from Ghulam Khan and the rest through the Kharlachi point.
After the closure of the borders due to unrest and severe security situation, farmers in Afghanistan are in agony due to huge economic losses. Afghanistan’s perishable exports such as fresh fruit, vegetables and dried fruit rely on short-distance, low-cost transport to Pakistani markets. Diversion through other countries makes such exports less competitive due to longer transit and greater risk of perishable goods rotting. There is also a lack of refrigeration facilities to transport perishable goods to long sea ports.
Aware of the situation and to avoid losses, Afghan exporters are still making desperate attempts to reach Pakistani markets through alternative routes. On November 8, Pakistan Customs blocked the import of goods of Afghan origin via Iran by abusing the Early Harvest program. An attempt was made to use the Taftan post on the part of Iran.
Pakistan Customs did not allow entry of the consignment into Pakistan on the grounds that the Early Harvest Program was intended to provide mutual benefits to the farmers of both countries on a bilateral and reciprocal basis. However, no trade took place between Pakistan and Afghanistan as the borders remained closed.
Customs also refused the entry of goods of Afghan origin on the grounds that there was a potential risk of abuse of the early harvest facility, as similar shipments can be imported from Iran under the guise of Afghan origin, as both countries produce comparable fresh fruits such as grapes and apples, which are also covered by the early harvest programme.
If Pakistan does not open its borders and also restrict the movement of Afghan citizens, the interim government may not have many options in the short term. The alternative routes through Iran are Chabahar port and Hairatan-Termez, Torghundi-Serhetabat in Central Asia.
These corridors face high transport costs, weak infrastructure and complicated regional politics. Thus, despite tensions, Pakistan will remain the most viable and cost-effective trade corridor for Afghanistan for the foreseeable future.
The Afghan interim government this week expressed its desire to choose alternative trade routes, but it may not be able to provide those options to its exporters in the short to medium term.
The Iranian routes are longer and more expensive, resulting in higher transport and fuel costs compared to the Pakistani corridors. The Kandahar and Helmand regions are about 150-300 kilometers from Pakistan’s Chaman-Spin Boldak borders, but 1,200-1,300 kilometers to Iran’s Zaranj or Delaram borders.
Likewise, Balkh and Baghlan are about 500-700 kilometers from Pakistan’s Torkham-Jalalabad borders and 900-1,000 kilometers from Iran’s Islam Qala.
Alternative routes would increase transport charges significantly, ranging from 30 – 50 percent. While Afghan farmers are facing problems, Pakistani transporters also had less earning opportunities due to the closure of the borders.
The growing number of Afghan-bound cargo stuck in Pakistan despite the closure of international borders following clashes highlights landlocked Kabul’s dependence on Pakistan amid its desire to look for alternative routes.
According to Pakistani customs authorities, over 5,500 containers bound for Afghanistan have been stuck either on the roads or in the port of Karachi. About 4,650 containers were stuck at sea and land ports after Pakistan Customs stopped their processing due to closure of international borders.
Pakistan has not suspended the Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement, but it did not process the goods clearance due to border closures to avoid congestion at Chaman and Torkham borders. There were 729 containers stuck at the Chaman border and another 142 at the Torkham border.
Pakistan made many positive moves on the fronts of trade, humanitarian aid, educational and medical visa facilitation and efforts in international forums to encourage the international community to engage with the Taliban regime for the sake of regional peace and stability and for the socio-economic development of Afghanistan and its people.
But the response from the Taliban regime has only been hollow promises and passivity and the excuse that it cannot take action against the terrorist outfit. If the situation does not improve, Pakistan could also think of other economic punitive measures, including requiring bank guarantees against goods in transit.
Pakistan has suffered huge military and civilian casualties, exercised maximum restraint and has not retaliated, according to Pakistan’s foreign ministry.
But now the indicators are that maximum restraint may no longer be an option.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry said the Taliban regime was constantly trying to misrepresent the issue of Pakistani terrorists hiding in Afghanistan as a humanitarian issue. In the aftermath of Pakistan’s Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2015, terrorists belonging to the so-called TTP/FaK fled to Afghanistan.
The recent terrorist attacks on the Judicial Complex, Islamabad, which killed over 12 innocent civilians, and an attack on a Cadet College in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could prove the last straw.
According to the Pakistani authorities, Sajid ullah alias Shina, who was the leader of the suicide bomber, admitted that TTP commander Saeed ur-Rahman, alias Dadullah, a resident of Charmang, Bajaur, who currently resides in Afghanistan and serves as TTP’s intelligence chief for Bajaur, contacted him and executed him through a Nawagai app. suicide attacks in Islamabad to inflict maximum damage on law enforcement agencies.
Dadullah sent Sajid ullah (Shina) the pictures of the suicide bomber, Usman, alias Qari, so that he could receive him in Pakistan. The suicide bomber, Usman (Qari), belonged to the Shinwari tribe and was a resident of Achin, Nangarhar, Afghanistan.
The traces of attack on Cadet College are also found in Afghanistan by the security agencies.
Pakistan’s former ambassador to Kabul, Mansoor Ahmad Khan, argued on the Express News show, The Review, that the government can use the three options of restricting the movement of people, trade and using security means to put pressure on the regime to crack down on the terror outfit. But he stressed the need to try to reopen dialogue with Afghanistan.
