The crypto market is a sea of ​​red as the ongoing trade tensions and tightening of liquidity in the US financial system drive demand for safe-haven Treasuries.
Bitcoin has dropped below its 200-day SMA to trade near $104,500, representing a 6% drop in 24 hours. Other important tokens such as ether , solana , and GDP has fallen 8% to 12%.
The CoinDesk 20 index is down nearly 9% to 3,389 points. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 22, signaling extreme investor fear for the first time since at least the market turmoil of April.
According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, the sell-off represents a tactical liquidity event layered on macro uncertainty.
“Positioning should be defensive, reduce leverage, keep cash dry and use staggered spot purchases at $104,000-$108,000 if liquidity allows,” Misir said in a note to CoinDesk.
“Structural narratives (ETF adoption, Treasuries, network fundamentals) remain intact, but today’s environment rewards discipline: defend core BTC, tread carefully in ETH and alts, and wait for confirmation of sustained buy-side flows before rebuilding directional risk,” he added.
Derivative positioning
- The BTC futures market is showing stability, with open interest holding steady at approximately $25.7 billion and the 3-month annual basis remaining firmly in the 5-6% range. In a significant shift from previous days, finance rates are now flat across all major venues.
- The BTC options market is exhibiting extreme, conflicting sentiment. 24-hour Put/Call Volume shows a slight bearish bias with a 45-55 split favoring puts. However, this is overshadowed by the sky-high 1-week 25 Delta Skew of approximately 21%. This unusually high positive bias indicates aggressive positioning and a massive premium paid for short-term call options, signaling strong conviction for a short-term rally despite the active demand for downside protection.
- Coinglass data shows $1.2 billion in 24-hour liquidations, with a 78-22 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($414 million), BTC ($268 million) and Others ($109 million) led the way in fictitious liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $103,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The entire crypto market is reeling on Friday after continued downward trend with several assets hitting multi-month lows.
- Ether is trading at $3,730 after falling more than 7% in the past 24 hours, while the likes of BNB, LINK and SUI are all down more than 10%.
- The move was spurred by another $1.2 billion in derivatives positions being liquidated, $840 million on the long side, adding to problems from last weekend when $19 billion was liquidated.
- Equities are also showing weakness, with the S&P500 losing 3.3% of its value in the past week, a sell-off that is reflected in the more illiquid and speculative crypto market.
- Much of the altcoin market depends on the direction of bitcoin; if it can hold above the psychological level of support at $100,000 and perhaps more importantly the level at $98,000, it could provide the impetus for altcoins to recover.
- If these levels are breached, onlookers will question whether the crypto market is sliding back into a dreaded bear market, a cycle that many analysts suggested would not occur this time due to institutional flows into crypto ETFs and buying power from digital asset treasury companies (DATs).
