With just over a week left in March, bitcoin is narrowly on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up about 2% on the month and holds over $68,000. However, a late pullback would see bitcoin close six consecutive months in the red, matching the longest negative streak on record, last seen between August 2018 and January 2019.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) remains a key level to watch. This metric, which tracks bitcoin’s long-term trend by averaging the closing price over the past 200 weeks, has historically served as strong support during bear markets.
In the current cycle, the 200WMA is near $59,000. bitcoin fell as low as $60,000 in early February and has since consolidated above that level for nearly two months, suggesting continued strength at this key support. Notably, the 2022 bear market is the only cycle in which bitcoin spent an extended stretch below the 200WMA, from June to December.
In addition to USD price action, bitcoin is also starting to show relative strength against gold. It is on track to post its first positive monthly candle against gold in eight months, with the bitcoin-to-gold ratio currently around 16 ounces. Gold, meanwhile, is trading near $4,200 after recently falling towards $4,000, down 5% on the day. Gold is now down over 25% from its January high, wiping out $7.5 trillion in market value.
Historically, each cycle has seen smaller moves in the bitcoin to gold ratio from its peak. In this cycle, bitcoin fell about 71% against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. These top-to-bottom cycles have typically lasted about 400 days, suggesting that the current decline may be overestimated in this regard.
If bitcoin can maintain support above the 200WMA while regaining strength against gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.
