BTC cme futures spread slides to $ 490 and regret ‘Trump Bump’

The Bullish atmosphere seen after Donald Trump’s victory in November 5 Presidential election is completely fizzled out, according to an indicator tied to CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures.

The indicator in view is the spread between “continuous” next month and the front-month standard BTC Futures trade on Global Derivatives Giant. A continuous contract is a calculated representation of a number of successive expiring future contracts, allowing for a continuous historical data series for analysis.

The spread is narrowed to $ 495, the lowest since November 5, after topping $ 1,705 on December 17, according to data source trading. In other words, it has completely turned the Trump shock in a sign of weakened bullish atmosphere on the market.

“The narrowing spread between the front month and next month CME Bitcoin-Futures could suggest that dealers temper their price expectations,” Thomas Erdösi, CF Benchmarks product manager, told Coindesk.

BTC CME next month front month futures scattered. (TradingView/Coindesk)

The settlement of the Trump shock probably means that the market has moved past the tale that a pro-crypto-president of the White House is good for the industry and macro-corrections are back in the driver’s seat.

“What we can see is that the front contract basis has repeated lower significantly since the beginning of March, signaling the moderation of almost term the expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent demonstration – the election of President Trump – has been fully priced in,” Erdosi said.

It already happens. Both BTC and Wall Street’s tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, have fallen 20% and 8% respectively since the beginning of February on a myriad of factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, Trump customs and prospects of inflation and economic growth.

In addition, the Bitcoin market had to digest disappointment over the lack of fresh purchases in Trump’s strategic digital asset reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order and directed a creation of a strategic reserve that includes BTC seized in enforcement measures.

The announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve is not what the market was hoping for. Many expected the reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead they said they would not sell any of their existing Bitcoin or confiscated Bitcoin. While this is a positive move, it told a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s award, “said Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics, Coindesk in an E email.

Futures are still in Contango

While the spread between next month and the front month CME Futures contracts are narrowed, the entire curve in Contango remains, where Far-Dated Futures Contracts (with longer maturity) deal with a prize for almost dated.

This is usually the case in all markets due to factors such as storage, financing, insurance costs and expectations of rising prices in the coming weeks or months.

“The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in Contango suggests that the recent feature is driven by unclear being pressed, rather than a wider market mounting,” noted Erdösi.

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