Of Omkar Godbole (all times one unless otherwise stated)
Crypto markets are a sea of red next to a growing risk aversion in traditional markets, and Trump’s duty is to blame. Late Friday, the president imposed a 25% duty on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, provoking retaliatory measures that have reopened a trade war reminiscent of 2018.
Consensus on social media and among analysts societies is that this customs -induced slide in the crypto market is temporary and that Bitcoin (BTC) will be rebounded quickly. However, there are reasons to believe otherwise.
First, Trump has crushed the crypto market’s belief that he is seeking to pump markets and would use small tariffs merely as a negotiating tactic. In fact, he has threatened to increase customs if trading partners are reciprocated. As Canada and Mexico responded with their own measures, the potential for additional customs increases weaves large.
Geo Chen, a macro trader and author of the popular Substack-based newsletter, Fidenza Macro, shared his perspective in an email to subscribers: “My view is that they remain in place for months with the risk of rising, like Canada Has been in return and China has launched a lawsuit against the United States in the World Trade Organization.
Chen emphasized that the tariffs are driven by concerns for trade deficits rather than the fentanyl crisis that Trump likes to produce, adding that markets can take days or weeks to understand this, leading to sustained volatility. In addition, the latest rates of $ 1.3 trillion are value of goods that the United States imports from the three nations seven times greater in value than the first shot fired in 2018.
All of this makes the latest episode appear more destabilizing than then, when the S&P 500 originally dropped 9% from its peak in March before they quickly rebounded. In other words, the potential pain can be greater this time, which pose a challenge for risk-on assets such as BTC.
As a crypto trader who chooses to remain anonymous said, “Despite the conversation about offers, this step does not feel temporary.” Stay aware!
What to look at
- Crypto:
- Macro
- February 3, 7 p.m. 9:45am: S&P Global Releases January’s US Production of PMI Fully Report.
- February 3 at. 10am: Department of Supply Management (ISM) Release January’s Manufacturing PMI report on business.
- February 4 at. 10am: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December’s job openings and Labor Trechover Survey (Jolts) Report.
- Job openings est. 7.88 m vs. Prev. 8.098m
- Jobs ending earlier. 3,065 m
- February 5, 9:45 AM: S&P Global Releases January’s US Services PMI (Final) Report.
- February 5, 10am: Department of Supply Management (ISM) Release January’s Services ISM report on business.
- Services PMI est. 54.3 vs. Prev. 54.1
- Services Business Activity Previous. 58.2
- Services Employment Previous. 51.4
- Services new orders earlier. 54.2
- Service prices for earlier. 64.4
- Earnings
- 5. February: Microstratey (Mstr), Post-Market, $ 0.09
- February 10: Canaan (CAN), Pre-Market
- 11th February: Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), Post-Market
- February 11: Exodus Movement (Exod), Post-Market, $ 0.14 (2 ests.)
- 12th February: HUT 8 (Cabin), Pre-Market, C $ 0.01
- February 12 (TBA): Metaplanet (Tyo: 3350)
- February 12: Reddit (RDDT), Post-Market
- 13th February: Cleanspark (CLSK), $ -0.05
- 13th February: Coinbase Global (Coin), Post-Market, $ 1.61
- February 18: CoinShares International Ltd (Sto: CS), Pre-Market
- February 18: Semler Scientific (SMLR), Post-Market, $ 0.26 (1 est.)
- February 20: Block (XYZ), Post-Market, $ 0.88
- February 26: Mara Holdings (Mara), $ -0.15
- February 26 (TBA): SOL Strategies (CSE: HODL)
- February 27: Riot Platforms (Riot), $ -0.18
- March 4: Cipher mining (digifr), $ -0.09
- 6. March (TBA): Bitfarms (Bitf)
- March 17 (TBA): Bit Digital (BTBT)
- March 18 (TBA): Terawulf (Wulf)
- March 27 (TBA): Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR)
- March 28 (TBA): Defi Technologies (NEO: DEFI)
- 31 March (TBA): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY)
- April 11 (TBC): Kulr Technology Group (Kulr)
- April 22: Tesla (TSLA), Post-Market
Token -events
- Management votes and calls
- Connection DAO discusses the creation of morpho-driven lending vault on polygon curated by Gauntlet. Polygon Labs are set to offer $ 1.5 million in pole, matched with $ 1.5 million in comp to incentive use.
- Vilbumum DAO votes on whether to transfer 1,885 ETH in the Nova transaction fees to its treasury through the modernized fee collection infrastructure described in the OVA fees -router proposal.
- Aave Dao is nearing the end of a vote on the implementation of AAVE V3 on Sonic, a new Layer-1 Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) Blockchain with a high transaction flow.
- February 4, 7 p.m. 13: Tron Dao and Cryptoquant to host a network review that dives for performance, adoption and key metrics.
- February 4 at. 12: Stellar hosts his Q4 Quarterly Review.
- Unlock
- February 5: XDC Network (XDC) to lock 5.36% of circulating supply worth $ 75.9 million.
- February 9: Movement (Movement) to lock 2.17% of circulating supply worth $ 30.06 million.
- February 10: APTOS (APT) to lock 1.97% of circulating supply worth $ 64.92 million.
- Token launches
- February 4: Wines (wines), Bio Protocol (Bio), Swarms (Swarms) and Sonic SVM (Sonic) to be erected on Kraken.
Conferences:
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- Hyperliquids hype stays strong in the market Bloodbath, with a 5% jump over the last 24 hours.
- The decentralized exchange generated nearly $ 4 million in fees over the last 24 hours, and some of the revenue is used to buy hype back, which helps support its price in the middle of a bearish market.
- Elsewhere, prices of long forgotten Jeo Boden (Boden) rose, a parody -products that mimic Joe Biden, worth $ 1 billion at market value on top, as much as 300% over the last 24 hours.
- The recorded trading quantity of over $ 8 million, the highest since July 2024, for no immediately obvious reason, which quickly changed prices on the one-off-hemoth token, which now has a small $ 3.5 million capitalization.
Derivatives Location
- Larger altcoins such as ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DODE, ADA sees negative eternal financing rates, a sign of dominance of short positions.
- The Om and Hype-tokens stand out with flat open interested cumulative volume delta and point to a neutral stream. Other tokens exhibit negative CVD, which involves Netto sales.
- BTC, ETH card-dated options show a bias for puts, with ETH that reflects greater downward fears compared to BTC.
- Block streams contained a large short position in the BTC $ 120K call, which expires on March 28, and a bear was spread in ETH $ 2.8,000 and $ 2.5,000 strikes.
Market Movement:
- BTC is down 6.3% from 1 p.m. 16 A Friday of $ 95,631.55 (24 hours: -3.25%)
- ETH is down 21.9% of $ 3,734.92 (24 hours: -15.28%)
- Coindesk 20 has fallen 15.9% at 3,154.76 (24 hours: -10.32%)
- Cesr Composite Poor speed has risen 3 bps by 3.03%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0036% (3.97% annual) on Binance
- DXY has increased by 0.95% at 109.41
- Gold is unchanged for $ 2,801.09/OZ
- Silver is down to 0.31% to $ 31.28/OZ
- Nikkei 225 Closed -2.66% to 38,520.09
- Hang bed closed unchanged at 20,217.26
- FTSE has fallen 1.17% at 8,572.04
- Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 0.4% at 5,203.52
- Djia closed Friday -0.75% to 44,544.66
- S&P 500 CLOSED —0.5% to 6,040.53
- Nasdaq closed +0.83% at 19,480.91
- S&P/TSX Composite Index Closed -1.07% to 25,533.10
- S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.73% to 2,370.49
- US 10-year-old Ministry of Finance was unchanged at 4.54%
- E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are down 1.38 %% at 5,983.50
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES ARE DOWN 1.59% at 21,247.00
- E-MINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX FUTURES have fallen 1.23% at 44,149
Bitcoin -Statistics:
- BTC Dominance: 61.62 (1.35%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02725 (-7.22%)
- Hashrate (seven-day sliding average): 833 EH/S
- Hashprice (Spot): $ 55.93
- Total fees: 4.56 BTC / $ 435,584
- Cme futures open interest: 177,260 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 33.9 oz
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 9.65%
Technical analysis
- BTC has jumped from the double top support line to $ 91,384, pruning of losses.
- However, the series with red candles suggests that the path for least resistance is on the lower side for now.
- A dense (UTC midnight) under the support line would trigger a double top bearish reversing pattern and open doors to a potential fall to $ 75,000.
Crypto shares
- Microstratey (MSTR): Closed Friday at $ 334.79 (-1.56%), dropped 5.37% at $ 316.81 on the market.
- Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed to $ 291.33 (-3.31%), dropped 5.69% to $ 274.74 in the pre-market.
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed to C $ 28.48 (-2.90%)
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 18.34 (-4.38%), dropped 5.34% to $ 17.36 on the market.
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 11.88 (-0.17%), down 4.21% to $ 11.40 in the pre-market.
- Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 12.27 (+0.08%), down 6.68% to $ 11.45 in the pre-market.
- Cleanspark (CLSK): Closed to $ 10.44 (-4.83%), a drop of 5.08% to $ 9.91 in Pre-Market.
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 22.55 (+0.22%), down 6.34% to $ 21.12 in the pre-market.
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 51.96 (-0.36%), down 6.08% to $ 48.80 in the pre-market.
- Exodus Movement (2.
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS:
- Daily Net Tream: $ 318.6 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 40.50 billion
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1,172 million.
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily Net Tream: $ 27.8 million
- Cumulative net streams: 2.76 billion dollars
- They gathered ETH holdings ~ 3,634 million.
Source: Father’s page -Investors
Flows overnight
Today’s chart
- Ethereum has seen the highest amount of net flow through crypto bridges in the last 24 hours, while the usual leader base, Solana, Arbitum has seen most outflows.
- It is a classic risk-off investor behavior, where the move to the oldest and largest smart contract Blockchain expects deeper market turns.
While you were asleep
- XRP, Dogecoin jumps 25%as crypto -Liquidations cross $ 2.2 B on tariffs LED -Dump (Coindesk): On Sunday, large crypto courses including XRP, however, announced in futures liquidation.
- The possibility of Bitcoin-Tanking for $ 75K double rooms when Trump’s tariffs ignite trade war, Decent’s Onchain Options Market Shows (Coindesk): Decre.xyz’s On-Chain Option Odds.
- USDE Stack Despite Trade War Volatility (Coindsk): Eththetic StableCoin USDE maintained its $ 1 Peg in the midst of volatile crypto markets, probably helped by its yield -generating mechanism.
- Dollar hovering, stocks fall as Trump imposes customs on Told: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg): The tariffs announced on Saturday, the dollar propelled to a two-year high when global equities, US stock and crypto prices fell in the midst of rising fears of rising inflation and Economic disturbance.
- Beijing prepares his opening bid to talk Trump (The Wall Street Journal): China will reportedly contest Trump’s 10% participants via the WTO and resume trade negotiations to revive the Phase 1 agreement by pledging increased US purchases and investments.
- Bank of England expected to reduce interest rates again as the British economy stagnates (Financial Times): With stagnant growth and relief of inflation, Bank of England is expected to reduce rates by 0.25% this week, although rising energy costs and merchant stresses can trigger stagflationary pressure .
