By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $100,000 for the first time since June as a wave of liquidations and changing macro expectations sparked a broad crypto selloff.
The leading cryptocurrency is now down more than 20% from the all-time high above $126,000 it set in early October. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, fell 2.6% in the past 24 hours and more than 27% in the past 30 days.
Selling intensified in the past 24 hours, with more than $1.7 billion in crypto positions liquidated, according to CoinGlass. Long traders bore the brunt of the losses.
“Since the ~$19B liquidations on 10/10, markets have moved lower,” Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk. “The current weakness reflects a mix of ongoing 10/10 digestion, slightly more hawkish Fed tone and a broader risk-off across assets, with the Nasdaq, crypto’s closest proxy, down ~2% on valuation concerns.”
The pullback sees bitcoin now struggling to defend a key level, its 50-week simple moving average, which has historically supported its long-term price recoveries. That level is just under $103,000.
“The sell-off is a reminder that liquidity remains thin, particularly in long-tail altars, which is why we are seeing excessive negative price action, further fueled by a market-wide flight to safety,” De Maere said.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s $128 million hack on Balancer raised new concerns about the security of the decentralized finance ecosystem, further chilling sentiment.
As it stands, sentiment has taken a hit with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index now sitting at “fear”. Near-term catalysts are limited, according to De Maere, although the US government’s reopening and supportive crypto legislation could support prices.
Pay attention!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- Nov 5 at 8: S&P Global Brazil October Services PMI (previous 46.3).
- Nov 5 at 08.15: ADP employment change in the US October. 25K.
- Nov 5 at 9:30am: S&P Global Canada October Services PMI (prev 46.3).
- Nov 5 at 9:45 AM: S&P Global US October (Final) Services PMI Est. 55.2.
- 5 November at 10:00 AM: US ISM October Services PMI Est. 50.8.
- November 5, 16:30: Brazil’s central bank interest rate decision. Est. 15%.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 5: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.54
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Decentraland DAO votes on a $10,000 proposal to fund an independent audit of Regenesis Labs by community member “Maryana”, following concerns about fund usage. Voting ends November 5.
- The CoW DAO votes to authorize its fund to sell the DAO’s 50% stake in MEV Blocker, allowing the core team to focus on core products and direct all sale proceeds to the treasury. Voting ends November 5.
- Ssv.network DAO votes to sell SSV to USDC at a lower price level ($11-$20) to build reserves. Voting ends November 5.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- November 5: Linea Exponent schedule begins.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The altcoin market remains in oversold territory after Tuesday’s grueling selloff, which saw several tokens fall to their lowest in months.
- The average relative crypto strength index (RSI) is at 38/100, with tokens including OKB, SKY and FLR printing numbers as low as 23/100. This suggests that while the overall crypto market is leaning bearish, a short-term relief rally may be in play.
- Any suggestion of a bounce would be invalidated if bitcoin and ether break below their respective support levels at $99,000 and $3,100.
- If further downside were to occur in BTC and ETH, altcoins would underperform due to lack of liquidity and skewed levels of leverage. This means that altcoin order books simply do not have enough buy orders to absorb the selling pressure and subsequent liquidations, resulting in dramatic increases to the downside.
- Traders will wonder if the latest “altcoin season” is officially over with the majority of tokens, with the exception of privacy coins, eroding their rallies from July and August.
- The privacy coin narrative remains a key driver in the current market, while DCR and ZEC cooled on Wednesday, XMR rose 7%, and the entire sector remains significantly higher over the past month.
Derivative positioning
- The BTC futures market reflects increasing caution. Open interest (OI) has fallen to $25.3 billion from $26 billion last week, suggesting traders are reducing leverage. Compared to the higher BTC price year-over-year, the decline indicates that the relative amount of leverage in the market has not kept pace with the increase in value.
- The three-month annualized basis is subdued to 3%-4%, signaling that the underlying trade is currently unappealing. Funding rates are mixed but low across major venues (4%-9% y/y), reinforcing the lack of strong trend engagement and overall market caution from the futures side.
- The bitcoin options market is showing mixed but volatile signals.
- Implied volatility (IV) is high across all maturities, indicating elevated expectations for near-term movements. Structurally, the IV term structure shows short-term decline (downward slope) before resuming a long-term contango (upward slope).
- Despite this volatility, recent trading bias has returned to bullish, with 24-hour put-call volume leaning 58%-42% in favor of calls, indicating active upside preference.
- The recent price drop was heavily influenced by leveraged liquidations, with $1.7 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours split 76%-24% in favor of long positions. ETH led the notional losses with $572 million liquidated.
- Crucially, the average long liquidation volume over the past two days of $1 billion is significantly higher than the seven-day average of $620 million, confirming the amplified effect of forced selling on the current price action.
- Looking ahead, a bounce could meet immediate resistance, with a key price level at $102,500 with $124 million in potential liquidations.
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.79% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $102,069.70 (24 hours: -2.41%)
- ETH is up 3.03% to $3,310.76 (24h: -6.74%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.01% to 3,209.70 (24h: -3.56%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 8 bps at 3.01%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.8905% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.21
- Gold futures are up 0.44% at $3,977.80
- Silver futures are up 0.44% at $47.50
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.5% at 50,212.27
- The Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,935.41
- The FTSE is unchanged at 9,707.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.64% to 5,624.23
- The DJIA closed down 0.53% at 47,085.24 on Tuesday
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.17% at 6,771.55
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.04% to 23,348.64
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.64% at 29,777.82
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.15% at 2,985.42
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 bps to 4.081%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.25% at 6,784.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.41% at 25,470.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 47,214.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 60.66% (-0.19%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03248 (0.25%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,091 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $41.43
- Total fees: 3.95 BTC / $408,873
- CME Futures open interest: 135,465 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 24.1 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 6.80%
Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin’s weekly price chart is currently trading below the key support level near $107,000.
- A confirmed weekly candlestick close below this mark would be a significant bearish signal, turning the core support into formidable overhead resistance and signaling a breakdown of the prevailing bullish trend.
- It is crucial to monitor whether BTC can recover and close above $107,000 by the end of the week to prevent a structural trend reversal.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $307.32 (-6.99%), +1.71% at $312.56 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $111.25 (-5.61%), +1.84% at $113.30
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.17 (-10.64%), +0.74% at $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $45.75 (-8.97%), +2.86% at $47.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.62 (-6.68%), +1.87% at $16.93
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.27 (-6.97%), +0.49% at $19.37
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.74 (-5.07%), +0.78% at $21.91
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.22 (-6.89%), +0.62% at $16.32
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $58.44 (-4.91%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.13 (-8.18%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $246.99 (-6.68%), +1.63% at $251.01
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.95 (-5.75%), +1.04% at $24.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.68 (-10.77%), +1.88% at $11.90
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.5 (-8.85%), +2.86% at $3.60
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.76 (-8.33%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$566.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $60.4 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.34m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$219.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.03 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.67 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- Bitcoin at Make or Break Level as China Suspends 24% Tariffs on US Goods (CoinDesk): The continued easing of trade tensions could eliminate a major source of uncertainty for the global economy, supporting increased risk-taking, including in financial markets.
- Crypto Hit by Bitcoin Whales Dump $45 Billion in Bets (Bloomberg): 10x Research’s Markus Thielen said longtime holders sold about 400,000 coins in a month, accounts with 100 to 1,000 coins have stopped buying and the relaxation may continue into the spring.
- Japan’s crypto players battle for market share on regulatory easing (Reuters): The jump points to a growing appetite for risk in Japan, where consumer price inflation is outpacing wages and the crypto-exchange rout of 2014 and 2018 is fading.
- Adam Back and Switzerland’s FUTURE Secure 28M Swiss Francs to Build Bitcoin Treasury (CoinDesk): The firm, led by prominent figures such as Richard Byworth, Sebastien Hess, and Adam Back, raised 28 million Swiss francs ($35 million) to expand its balance sheet-driven bitcoin treasury model.
