Bitcoin recently found support at a key onchain metric – the average realized price for a specific year – in this case the 2023 cost basis.
The average realized price for 2023 is currently around $63,700. During the local bottom in early February, when bitcoin fell about 50% from its October high, to around $60,000, the price was effectively tested and held this level as support.
This behavior mirrors the previous cycle. In early 2023, when the bull run began, bitcoin experienced several small corrections and repeatedly used the realized price in 2023 as support. This can be observed in March, July and September 2023, where the price consolidated in the range of $20,000 to $26,000.
Looking at more recent cohorts, the average realized price in 2026 started the year near $90,000 and has since fallen to around $77,000. With bitcoin currently trading just above $70,000, the average 2026 buyer is underwater. Notably, this cohort’s cost base has also fallen below both the 2024 cohort to $81,500 and the 2025 cohort to $96,400.
Zooming out further, the total realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all coins in circulation, is currently around $54,360. Historically, bitcoin has traded below this level in every major bear market, including 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2022.
So far in this cycle, bitcoin’s lowest price has been around $60,000. If that level fails, it will be the next key support to watch, with the realized price of $54,000 acting as a deeper historical bottom.
