American poet Charles Bukowski said famous, “The audience is always wrong,” and his words seem to summarize the situation in the financial markets perfectly.
Only 24 hours ago, social media was amazed at fear that the US air striker on Iran’s nuclear locations combined with the lecture on Iran Mulling The closure of the Hormuz Strait will trigger a massive increase in oil prices, leading to a slide in stocks and crypto courses.
However, reality has proven to be different. Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic gapped higher by only 3% and have since deleted most of the winnings, according to data source trading.
From writing, a barrel of brent -oil changed hands to $ 77, up only 1.4% for the day. Prices got higher to hit a five -month height of $ 77.79. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) hit a high of $ 78.58 before falling back to $ 76.75.
Meanwhile Bitcoin
The leading cryptocurrency with market value has risen over $ 101,000, after hit low under $ 98,000 on Sunday, when fear of an oil price increase led to the short -term decrease -listed BTC sets trade with an 8% -10% volatility premium for calls. Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded only 0.3% lower.
The largely muted reaction in oil prices suggests that the market does not expect Iran to follow through its threats and block the hormuz strait, which can destabilize its most important allies in Asia, especially China.
“Price action this morning suggests that the market does not believe (at least not yet) flowing through the hormuz will be blocked. Brent is back under $ 80/BBL after briefly spike over this level earlier in the trade session,” analysts said in Ing in a report to clients Monday.
“With more than 80% of the oil flows through the hormuz ending in Asia, the effect on the region would be greater than in the United States. Therefore, Iran will be careful about disturbing China like disturbing the oil flows,” Ing added.
According to Energy Market expert Anas Alhajji, Iran’s threat to close the strait is largely a rhetorical tactic for domestic consumption, which it has used at least 15 times since the 1980s. Alhajji explained the same in a post on X, where he revised the 2018 thread, which detailed how blocking the strait is easier said than done.
“For Iran to close the Sound, it means the occupation and acquisition of Oman’s waters, where most ships go through. This will immediately invoke the Defense Covenant for GCC: It means war among everyone,” the thread said, adding that a potential closure would hurt Iran’s friends more than its enemies who do not import oil from Iran and could bypass the stranding through two underutilated pipelines.
BTC has key support
All of this means that the highly dreaded oil price tip may not be realized soon, which can help BTC and other risk assets to avoid a sale. A large increase in oil would increase the risk of larger economies sliding into stagflation, the worst result for most assets, including Bitcoin.
BTC’s diagram shows that Bears could not establish a foothold under the horizontal support of $ 100,430 on Sunday. Buyers entered this level on June 5 and took prices higher to $ 110,000 in the days that followed.
Oil’s muted reaction suggests the potential of history to repeat itself. On the flip side, acceptance during support would shift the focus to the confluence of the 100- and 200-day simple movement average of about $ 95,900.
