A momentum indicator that suspected Bitcoin’s (BTC) after the election prize has now become negative, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s customs dormic, which threatens to destabilize markets. There is still no need to panic yet.

This indicator is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram used to measure trend strength and changes. It is calculated by drawing Bitcoin’s average price level in the last 26 periods (weeks in this case) from the average in the last 12 weeks.

The signal line is then calculated as a nine-week average of MACD, and the difference between MacD and the signal lines is depicted as a histogram.

MacD on Bitcoin’s weekly chart is crossed below zero, which is said to represent a bearish shift in momentum. Meanwhile, crossovers over zero indicates a bullish trend. The indicator became positive in mid -October and strengthened the case for a rally for $ 100,000, which Coindesk reported at that time.

So while the latest Bearish MacD signal may alert bulls, especially retail buyers who depend on technical analysis tools, BTC’s current price action does not validate the negative reading on the indicator.

Currently, BTC remains limited within the wider range from $ 90k to $ 100,000, with the recent movements tightened to an interval between $ 95K and $ 100K. The directionless trade reduces the importance of MacD’s Bearish Crossover.

It is important to remember that indicators come from price action, not the other way around. MACD signals must be confirmed by price action. The indicator’s bullish signal in mid-October was backed by prices that broke out of a multi-month trading area.

Tarifftrousle and rising inflation expectations

While MACD is not yet a cause for concern, several macro factors justify attention as potential sources of volatility downward that could see the cryptocurrency test the long-lasting support near $ 90,000. A break underneath that would validate the fresh negative reading on MacD, confirming a bearish shift in momentum.

At the top of the list is Trump’s TolderTorik, which, if it translates into action, can lead to higher bond yield and lower risk assets.

Trump said he announced 25% duty on Monday on all steel and aluminum imports, which would come on top of additional metal tasks to be revealed later this week. Trump has suggested plans to apply higher tariffs to a wide range of goods imported from the European Union later this month, according to UBS.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey Released Friday showed that the customs threat already has a negative impact on consumers’ expectations for price pressure in the economy. Inflation expectations for the coming year increased to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in January, the highest reading since November 2023.

It could prevent fat from rapidly cutting speeds. “2-year inflation swaps have begun to price a certain risk premium around customs rates. At 2.72%they have reached new heights. The market interprets fat to be pretty much on a long break: Growth keeps up okay, and the idea is, though Inflation falls to 2%, which Fed doesn’t have to be busy cutting down, “said Alfonso Peccatiello, the author of Macro Compass, on X.

The US CPI data or the Consumer Price Index Report for January are scheduled to be released on February 12.