Good morning, Asia. Here’s what makes news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories during the US HOURS and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Coindesk’s Crypto Doybook Americas.
Bitcoin is stuck in a team pattern near $ 112,000, according to Coindesk market data, but the larger story Onchain may be the gap that arises between how investors treat BTC and ETH headline in September. BTC works more like a macro hedge, while ETH is placed as the right vehicle for upwards.
This divide reflects a mixture of political uncertainty and changing traders. In a recent note, QCP Capital wrote that Doubts about Fed’s independence keeping prizes raised, a set up that weakens the dollar and supports hedges such as BTC and gold.
But setting tables and prediction markets instead show Momentum in ETH, where dealers see the most potential for a breakout.
Flowdesk reported that muted suggested volatility in BTC despite withdrawal, which suggested positioning rather than speculative efforts. Skew remains negative, which means puts are expensive, but it creates relative value in call structures. ETH risk transfers have meanwhile recovered from their recent sales, indicating renewed demand for exposure on the head.
Sun options also experienced increased activity, with streams crooked on the upside of the growing mood around its ecosystem and company’s digital asset contact initiatives. Spot activity rotated to ETH Beta names such as Aave and Aero, as well as Sol Betas as Ray and Operation showing width expansion over majors.
Prediction markets back this rotation theme. The polymark mood amplifies rotation. Dealers expect BTC to remain limited near $ 120,000, while ETH gets a strong chance of breaking $ 5,000 – a point of view that is in line with the 20% monthly rally and recovering risk transfers.
Dealers are increasingly treating BTC as a stable macro hedge, while ETH emerges as the high conviction of the market upside down in September.
Europe-based market manufacturer Flowdesk wrote in a recent telegram update that the activity on the desk remains high, with clients widely placed upwards, even when macro-risk dwells and seasonal volatility tend to pick up.
The macro background puts the hedge case, trading streams showing how positioning changes and the prediction markets validate it with real money efforts. Together, they draw a market where BTC anchors as a governance and inflation hedge, ETH leads to performance, and sun builds speed as the width improves.
Market movements
BTC: Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase around the $ 110K – 112K series, marked with diminishing short -term volatility.
ETH: ETH trades near the $ 4400. Its rally is driven by increasing institutional interest, especially through ETF flow, and expectations around the upcoming FUSAKA network upgrade. Price action is supported by a strong structural demand as ETH continues to solidify its role in defi and smart contracts.
Gold: Gold trades around record highs driven by the expectations of an impending federal reserve frequency cutting (Markets prices now for about 92% chance)weakening the confidence in fed independence and increased demand from ETFs and central banks that act as conviction buyers.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks rose Thursday, led by a gain of 0.57% in Japan’s Nikkei 225, as Wall Street’s tech-rally raised mood despite being lingering financial concerns.
S&P 500: US stocks rose Wednesday when the alphabet achieved after avoiding a collapse in an antitrust decision, and investors increased September-fed SATS-cut bets despite fresh labor market problems.
Elsewhere in crypto:
- US CFTC gives go to the polymarket’s new exchange, QCX (Coindesk)
- Pump.Fun’s new fee model distributes $ 2 million. To creators on the first 24 hours (decrypter)
- AI agents become the largest stableecoin user, says Novogratz (Bloomberg)
