BTC may fall to $80,000 but is at levels prior to extremes of the FTX era

Bitcoin is showing one of the deepest momentum breaks of the cycle, with several onchain indicators now printing signals last seen during the industry’s most violent washouts.

Data from Glassnode shows that realized losses have increased to levels comparable to the capitulation in November 2022 around the FTX collapse. The rally is being driven almost entirely by short-term holders, a colloquial term for wallets bought within the past 90 days, who are liquidating on a large scale as BTC extends its decline below the 200-day moving average.

Short-term dominance with realized losses is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out. The current cluster is the largest since early 2023 and one of only a handful in the past five years to reach a daily run rate of $600 million to $1 billion.

Market structure indicators tell a similar story. Independent analyst MEKhoko noted that BTC is now trading more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average.

That kind of shift has only happened three times in the past decade: November 2018, the March 2020 pandemic crash, and June 2022 during the Three Arrows Capital/Luna crisis.

This week’s draw matches the same pattern of behavior: a sharp expansion in spot sales, collapsing financing rates and a measurable retreat of marginal buyers who were previously leaning on momentum.

With BTC now deeply stretched below trend, short-term holders washed out and sentiment locked in extreme fear, market positioning is approaching levels historically associated with short-term bottoms.

But without a clear macro catalyst, traders warn that volatility around these levels is likely to remain high.