Of Omkar Godbole (all times one unless otherwise stated)

The sun was shining on crypto markets early Wednesday, with Bitcoin having another trip to $ 88,000 in the middle of growing scraped for bullish seasonal factors when March is completed and the second quarter is tuned.

The last 10 years of price data traced by analyst Miles Deutscher, April shows April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and the end of the year. The pattern was also noted by QCP Capital, which pointed to the second quarter and especially April as Bullish for Crypto.

“The S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 19.6% in the 2nd quarter, while Bitcoin has also registered its second best median benefit during this stretch that only draws 4 quarter,” the Singapore-based company said at Telegram.

Seasonal determination factors are not as reliable as independent indicators, but when combined with other signs, such as the recent stop when selling long -term holders, they seem credible.

The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets), which has been holding their BTC for at least one year, has turned upwards, signaling a shift to a team strategy, according to Data Source Bitbo charts. See also the card during the day below.

Reports that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is the preparation of rules for removing reputation from its bank surveillance was labeled “A great victory for crypto” by the White House Crypto Czar David Sacks. “In practice, these vague and subjective criteria were used to justify the breakdown of legal cryptic businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” Sacks said at X.

When we talk about the wider market, social media is talking about stableecoins, with observers pointing to $ 31.8 billion in stableecoins sitting on the sidelines of Binance as potentially dry powder waiting for a catalyst. Blackrock’s decision to debut a physically Bitcoin exchange traded product in Europe with a reduced overall cost ratio of 15 BPS is also seen as very positive, considering that fees are generally higher there than in the United States that uncover widespread adoption.

Still, macroeconomic uncertainty has the potential to play spoilsport and keep expensive spirits in check. While the recent media reports suggest that President Donald Trump’s expected mutual tariffs on April 2 can be softer than expected, there is still considerable confusion regarding the legality of customs and countries and sectors that will be targeted.

The deeper slide in the American consumer confidence In March and Death Cross in the USD/JPY pair, which indicates a strengthening of yen, a garden currency that does not help cases either. So stay aware!

What to look at

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 27, 8:30: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (finally) Q4 GDP data.
    • GDP growth speed qoq est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
    • Core PCE prices Qoq est. 2.7% against prev. 2.2%
    • PCE prices Qoq est. 2.4% against prev. 1.5%
    • Real consumer expenses QOQ est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%
  • March 27, 8:30: The US Ministry of Labor is releasing unemployment insurance data for the week ending on March 22.
    • Initial unemployed claims est. 225k vs. Prev. 223k
  • March 27, 10:00: The US Senate Bank Committee holds a consultation on the nomination of Paul Atkins to the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Live Steam Link.
  • March 27, 15:00: Mexico’s Central Bank announces its interest rate.
    • Target rate est. 9% against prev. 9.5%
  • March 28, 8:00: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases data on unemployment rate.
    • Unemployment rate est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%
  • March 28, 8:00: Mexicos National Institute of Statistics and Geography Release Data on Unemployment Percentage.
    • Unemployment rate est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • March 28, 8:30: Statistics Canada Release January GDP data.
    • GDP Mother Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
  • March 28, 8:30: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index Mother Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PCE Price Index Yoy Est. 2.7% against prev. 2.6%
    • PCE Price Index Mother Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE -Price Index Yoy Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
    • Personal Income Mother Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%
    • Personal expenses for Mother Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%
  • April 2 at. 12:01: The Trump Administration’s mutual customs plans go live.
• Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
  • March 27: Kulr Technology Group (Kulr), Post -Market, $ -0.02
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), Pre-Market, C $ 0.38

Token -events

• Management votes and calls
• Unlock
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) to lock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $ 28.88 million.
  • April 1: SUI (SUI) to lock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $ 164.34 million.
  • April 1: Zetachain (Zeta) to lock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $ 14.39 million.
  • April 2: ethena (ENA) to lock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $ 17.29 million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to lock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $ 143.5 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to lock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $ 11.98 million.
  • April 9: Movement (Moving) to lock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $ 27.29 million.
• Token lists
  • March 27: Walrus (WAL) to be performed on gate.io and bybit.
  • March 28: Binance to Deglist Aergo (Aergo).
  • March 31: Binance to Devist Usdt, FDUSD, TUND, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Pumpswap has quickly gained new users and over $ 1.2 billion in trading quantities only a few days after going live and now accounts for almost 15% of the trading activity at Solana.
• Pump Fun introduced the pumpswap last week as its own decentralized exchange (DEX) for the purpose of streamlining token migrations and trading.
• Pump Fun, a prominent Solana blockchain platform, gained traction to enable quick token and implementation creation, often associated with memcoins. It has relieved over 1.5 million token launches since its early 2024 debut and found an audience who wants to trade microcapcs on Solana’s low cost network.
• Tokens migrated to Solana Dex Raydium after they hit a market value of $ 69,000 on pump.fun. With pumpswap, tokens (and commercial fees) never leave the wider pump ecosystem.
• Abracadabra Money’s Gmcaulron’s suite suffered a hack on Tuesday. resulting in a $ 13 million MIM loss. The rest of the Abracadabra product ecosystem was not affected where DAO outlined a restore plan in “Abracadabra Money: The Path Forward.”
• Dao Treasury, which has $ 19 million in assets, has already acquired 6.5 million MIM to repay 50% of the loss, plans to cover the remaining amount in the coming months, showing a proactive reaction to mitigate the effect.

Derivatives Location

• Shib’s Eternal Futures Open Interest has increased by 14% and surpasses other major cryptocurrencies, while BTC and ETH open interest has fallen by less than 1% in the last 24 hours.
• A meme token that receives more net inflow than other assets is often a precursor to a market correction.
• Perpetual financing rates for most major tokens, excluding TRX, BNB and SUI remain positive, but less than an annual 10%, denoting a moderate bullish positioning.
• Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to doubt the recent price extraction and sporting a bullish call bias only after May.
• Block currents contained a BTC tyr call spread in the September outlet involving $ 90,000 and $ 125,000 strikes. In ETH’s case, the flows leaned slightly bearish with a direct long time in put options for $ 1.9,000 and $ 2K strikes.

Market Movement:

• BTC has risen 0.14% from 1 p.m. 16 A Monday to $ 88,019.03 (24 Hours: +1.02%)
• ETH has fallen 0.25% of $ 2,060.34 (24 hours: -0.22%)
• Coindesk 20 has increased 0.28% at 2,811.12 (24 hours: +0.96%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has increased by 4 bps of 2.95%
• BTC -Financing rate is at 0.0101% (3,6869% annual) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 104.23
• Gold is unchanged for $ 3,024.80/oz
• Silver has increased by 0.5% of $ 34.17/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.65% at 38,027.29
• Hang bed closed +0.6% at 23,483.32
• FTSE is unchanged at 8,668.40
• Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 0.65% at 5,439.52
• Djia closed Tuesday unchanged at 42,587.50
• S&P 500 CLOSED +0.16 at 5,776.65
• Nasdaq closed +0.46% at 18,271.86
• S&P/TSX Composite Index Closed +0.14% at 25,339.50
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.03% at 2,480.80
• US 10-year-old Treasury has risen 1 BPS by 4.33%
• E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are down 0.15% at 5,817.50
• E-MINI NASDAQ-100 futures are down 0.2% at 20,448.50
• E-MINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX Futures are down 0.12% at 42,854.00

Bitcoin -Statistics:

• BTC Dominance: 61.46 (-0.03%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02344 (-0.85%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 838 EH/S
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 50.17
• Total fees: 13.1 BTC / $ 1,152,066
• CME Futures Open Interest: 147,550 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 29.1 oz
• BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.26%

Technical analysis

• Yen-Dollar’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed during its 200-day SMA, confirming a so-called Death Cross Bearish Momentum pattern.
• It is a sign of an impending rally in the yen, seen as a garden currency that can destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrency.
• The Yen-Bullish pattern comes as the Talk of Bank of Japan rate increases, the pace is gathering.

Crypto shares

• Strategy (Mstr): CLOSED MONDAY OF $ 341.81 (+1.81%), an increase of 0.47% to $ 343.40 in the pre-market
• COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): CLOSED TO $ 204.23 (+0.59%), down 0.11% to $ 204
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed to $ 18.65
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 14.25 (-2.46%), dropped 0.35% to $ 14.30
• Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 8.51 (-2.41%), down 0.12% to $ 8.50
• Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 8.66 (-6.98%), down 0.12% to $ 8.65
• CLEANSPARK (CLSK): CLOSED TO $ 8.73 (-0.68%), down 0.11% to $ 8.72
• COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 15.65 (-4.05%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 42.38 (-1.17%)
• Exodus Movement (2.

Etf is flowing

SPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Tream: $ 26.8 million
• Cumulative net streams: 36.24 billion dollars
• Collected BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.

SPOT ETH ETFS

• Daily Net Tream: -3.3 million dollars
• Cumulative net streams: 2.43 billion dollars
• They collected ETH holdings ~ 3,415 million.

Source: Father’s page -Investors

Flows overnight

Today’s chart

• The diagram represents the proportion of crypto addresses – or wallets – which have held their Bitcoin for at least one year without outgoing transactions.
• The metric has emerged in recent weeks and increased from 61.8% to 63.4% in a sign of renewed attitude mood.

While you were asleep

In ether