The crypto market is on the verge of a major breakout like bitcoin traded at $73,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,250, the highest level since February 4.
If bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, can break above $74,000 on compelling volume, it will likely run back to $80,000, which was a level of support in November before a possible collapse in January.
A rejection, on the other hand, would lead to a return to a trading range between $62,000 and $72,000 that has persisted for more than a month.
But the main story on Monday is not among the crypto majors, it is the altcoin market and memecoins in particular.
PEPE is up around 20% over the past 24 hours, while BONK and PENGU are also up by double digits. However, “overbought” conditions on the Average Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that a pullback may be in store before any breakout.
Oil remains inflated to above $106 a barrel. barrel despite the US reportedly considering a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route.
US stock futures are up around 0.5% and crypto-related companies are on the rise in pre-market trading. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) was recently 3% higher and Circle Internet (CRCL) added 5%. Bitcoin tax company Strategy (MSTR) rose 4 percent.
Precious metals fell and the dollar weakened, reflecting risk sentiment.
Derivatives positioning
- Industry-wide futures are up over 8% to $112.34 billion in 24 hours in a sign of increased risk-taking in the market.
- Open Interest (OI) in Ether (ETH) and futures rose 16% and 19%, respectively, leading the growth among major cryptocurrencies. This indicates a strong investor preference for smart contract tokens. OI in bitcoin rose more than 5%.
- In ether’s case, OI rose coin-wise to 14.34 million ETH, the highest since September 2025.
- There are signs of speculation in non-serious tokens such as : Open interest linked to the cryptocurrency has increased over 11%.
- The growth of OI in most major tokens is accompanied by positive perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas. This combination indicates an increasing demand for bullish leveraged plays.
- However, on Deribit, puts linked to bitcoin and ether continue to be more expensive than calls across all timeframes. It is a sign of continued demand for downside hedging despite the market’s rebound. Selling overhead calls can be another reason for the persistent put premium.
- In XRP’s case, the strike call and put at $1.40 are the most popular, cumulatively with a theoretical open interest of $14 million. That is almost 25% of the total XRP options open interest on the exchange.
Token talk
- The altcoin market is in a jubilant mood with the “altcoin season” index hitting 48/100, the highest in over two months.
- The total crypto market value excl. bitcoin hit $1.1 trillion on Monday, adding about $40 billion in the past 24 hours and $10 billion since midnight UTC, according to TradingView.
- The best performing CoinDesk benchmark over the past 24 hours has been the Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), which consists of ETH, SOL, ADA and SUI among layer-1 networks. SCPXC is up 6.3%, closely followed by the Memecoin Index (CDMEME), which is up 5.2%.
- AI-focused token bittensor (TAO) has lost 3.7% since midnight. This is a consolidation move rather than a decline after it rose more than 69% from March 8th to March 15th.
- It appears that some of these profits are being rotated into another AI project, which has benefited from a 60% increase in daily trading volume to $195 million, with the token rising 11% as a result.
