By Francisco Rodrigues (all times one unless otherwise stated)
Risk assets, Cryptocurrencies among them, breathed a sigh of relief after President Donald Trump excluded an immediate entry into the Israeli Iran War and said he can wait two more weeks before deciding if he would add us firewood to the conflict.
Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $ 106,000, an increase of 0.9% on the last day, and the wider Coindesk 20 index has achieved 0.77%. In traditional markets, oil prices slipped 1.7% after a three-week rally, and European stock index increased. The US stock futures are slightly taller than they were this time Thursday.
Trump’s comment reduced the odds of US military action by the end of the month on the prediction market Polymarket from about 70% to 40%. If the timeline is expanded to next month, the odds are now at 62%, dropped from 90% on June 17.
“While the immediate prospect of an American intervention in Iran may have diminished, the fact that this is allegedly a two-week hiatus is that it will remain a live question for the markets going into next week,” AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth told Yahoo Finance.
Despite the relative stability of the crypto market, analysts see diverging risks. Glassnode, a blockchain analytic company, said muted activity on chain could reflect a more mature market dominated by institutions that make large, rare transactions.
A new report from Cryptoquant on the other hand warns Bitcoin could fall to $ 92,000 or lower if demand is not in rebound. ETF streams have fallen 60% since April, whale purchase has subsided by half, and short-term holders have dumped 800,000 BTC since the end of May. Stay aware!
What to look at
- Crypto
- June 20: Proof-of-Stake Blockchain Blackcoin (BLK) activates Segwit on Mainnet and improves security and performance. Bookings need to be upgraded to release V26.2.0 before this date. Wallets from 13.2 can be used in 26.2.x.
- June 25: Zigchain (ZIG) Mainnet goes live.
- June 30: CME Group introduces spot-cited futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trade in Bitcoin, Ether and major US stock indices with contracts that can be kept for up to five years.
- Macro
- June 20, 8:30: Statistics Canada release can produce price inflation data.
- PPI MOM est. 0% vs. Prev. -0.8%
- PPI Yoy Prev. 2%
- June 23 at. 8: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases April -Detail Data.
- Retail Sales Mother Prev. 0.5%
- Detail Sale Yoy Prev. 4.3%
- June 23 at. 9:45am: S&P Global Releases (Flash) June US Data on Manufacturing and Service Activity.
- Composed PMI Prev. 53
- Manufacture of PMI Prev. 52
- Services PMI Prev. 53.7
- June 23 at. 15: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases Q1 GDP data.
- GDP -Væktrate Qoq Prev. 1.1%
- GDP -Væktrate Yoy Prev. 2.1%
- June 20, 8:30: Statistics Canada release can produce price inflation data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
- June 23 (TBC): Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), Post -Market, $ -0.12
Token -events
- Management votes and calls
- Connection DAO is set to vote on a proposal to create the Compound Foundation, a non-profit to drive protocol growth and strategy. It requires an 18-month plan and requests $ 9 million in comp. The vote ends on June 20th.
- Vilbumum DAO votes on a proposal to launch drip, $ 80 million. Incentive program targeting specific defi activity. Managed by a foundation -led selection would drip reward users directly and allow DAO to shut it down via voting. Voting ends on June 20th.
- Apecoin DAO votes on whether the decentralized autonomous organization should sunset in the decentralized autonomous organization and launch Apeco, a new device created by Yuga Labs with a mission to “supercharge ape ecosystem.” Voting ends on June 24th.
- Polkadot Community votes to launch a non-parenting authority mark Polkadot-labeled payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the polkadot ecosystem and everyday expenses.” Voting ends July 9th.
- Unlock
- June 30: Optimism (OP) to lock 1.83% of its circulating supply worth $ 17.34 million.
- July 1: SUI (SUI) to lock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $ 120.99 million.
- July 2: ethena (ENA) to lock 0.67% of its circulating supply worth $ 11.23 million.
- Token launches
- June 26: Coinbase to Delister Helium Mobile (Mobile), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (Vision).
Conferences
The Coindesk Policy & Regulation Conference (Formerly known as Crypto State) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on September 10, providing general advisers, compliance and regulatory leaders to meet with public officials responsible for crypto law and regulatory supervision.
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight
- Jupiter Dex pauses for all DAO votes until the end of 2025, with reference to management questions and a need to reset his structure in a “critical period” for defi.
- Exec Kash Dhanda said the current DAO setup breeds mistrust and FUD, which prevents teams, holders and platforms from working coherently.
- A new management model will be introduced next year with the aim of “uniting rather than dividing” the Jupiter community.
- POINTING REWARDS (ASR) continues with 50 M JUP pr. Quarter, but no new DAO-funded working groups or emissions are created in the meantime.
- The Jup token has fallen nearly 22% in the last month, and Friday’s government news had minimal influence, with the award hovering near $ 0.40.
Derivatives Location
- Open interest (OI) across the upper derivatives is still stable but muted compared to previous heights.
- According to Velo data, respective OI is at $ 56.73 billion, still well under $ 65.95 billion top seen on June 11th.
- Binance has regained land by $ 24.5 billion in OI, though this remains short than its previous $ 27.9 billion high. BCH stands out as a remarkable mover and records the third largest nominal OI win over the past 24 hours with an increase of $ 83.4 million after BTC and ETH, according to Laevitas.
- BTC and ETH settings positioning remain concentrated around strikes out of money despite a minor outlet today.
- On derivative, ETH Options Contract Oi reached an annual height of 2.58 million, with most exposures being set to expire on June 27.
- ETH SKEW remains strong call dominated for the $ 3,200 strike, while BTC interest rates are raised between $ 100,000 and $ 110,000.
- ETH’s Put/Call Ratio is 0.43 and BTCs of 0.63. Notional currents are similarly adjusted with top -made contracts, including 27jun25 $ 2,600C and $ 100,000 P, reflecting both directional interest and hinding of hedging.
- Financing frequency APRS across eternal swaps remains largely positive according to VELO data, where BTC and ETH both print 10.95% on Bybit and Hyperliquid. Binance financing is also increased to 8.98% for BTC and 10.05% for ETH, while Deriibit remains flat.
- In contrast, BNB shows sharp negative prints (–22.73% on city bites and –13.04% on hyperliquid), which suggests short pressure in the middle of falling dominance. Altcoin financing is similarly mixed, with names such as Aave and DOGE that remain positive, while sun and Avax are slightly changed.
- Coinglass data shows $ 131.89 million in 24-hour liquidation, skew 56% against shorts. ETH LED -Nominal liquidations for $ 32.2 million, followed by BTC for $ 28.7 million.
- The Binance heating reveals close liquidation clusters between $ 106,000 and $ 108,000, indicating that the recent price action cleared layered short positioning.
- BTC dominance continues to hover about 65%, and while short liquidations suggest pressed leverage, directional conviction measured on the way into the next large expiry window.
Market movements
- BTC has risen 1.63% from 1 p.m. 16 A Thursday to $ 106,015.34 (24 hours: +0.98%)
- ETH has risen 1.85% of $ 2,554.74 (24 hours: +0.46%)
- Coindesk 20 has risen 1.3% at 3,034.29 (24 hours: +0.76%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has risen 7 BPS of 3.05%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0071% (7,7451% annually) on OKX
- DXY is down to 0.30% at 98.61
- Gold Futures have fallen 0.99% of $ 3,374.40
- Silver Futures are down 2.20% of $ 36.10
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.22% at 38,403.23
- Hang bed closed 1.26% at 23,530.48
- FTSE has increased 0.44% at 8,830.90
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.80% at 5,238.57
- DJIA shut down on Wednesday down 0.10% at 42,171.66
- S&P 500 closed 0.03% at 5,980.87
- Nasdaq Composite closed 0.13% at 19,546.27
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.20% at 26,506.00
- S&P 40 Latin America closed Thursday down 0.15% at 2,614.38
- US 10-year state course has increased by 2 bps of 4.42%
- E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are down 0.24% at 5,967.00
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES ARE DOWN 0.25% AT 21.6666.75
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index has fallen 0.21% at 42,098.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 65% (0.25%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02407 (-0.08%)
- Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 864 EH/S
- HashPrice (Spot): $ 53.25
- Total fees: 5.07 BTC / $ 537,039.75
- Cme futures open interest: 154,500 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.87%
Technical analysis
- Bitcoin recovered its monthly open after a successful gene test of the 50-day exponential sliding average (EMA), signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. The asset now acts over Monday’s low and seems to take a step to recreate the entire Monday interval.
- If successful, this would open the path towards Monday’s high near $ 109,000. However, the price is currently uncovered by the 20-day EMA.
- In order for bulls to maintain control, it will be important for BTC to continue to close the monthly open.
- A decisive close to the January heights would further invalid the prevailing weekly swing failure pattern, reinforce the bullish case and potentially pave the way for a wider continuation of the head.
Crypto shares
The US markets were closed on Thursday due to June -Føderal vacation
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed Thursday on C $ 26.65 (+2.03%)
Strategy (Mstr): Closed Wednesday of $ 369.03 (-1.64%), +1.1% to $ 373.10 in Pre-Market
Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed to $ 295.29 ( +16.32%), +1.03% to $ 298.34
CIRCLE (CRCL): CLOSED TO $ 199.59 ( +33.82%), +10.53% TO $ 220.60
Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 14.49 (-1.23%), +1.73% to $ 14.74
Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 9.94 ( +2.9%), +1.51% to $ 10.09
Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 11.9 ( +0.08%), +0.42% to $ 11.95
CLEANSPARK (CLSK): CLOSED TO $ 9.18 ( +3.15%), +1.42% TO $ 9.31
COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 18.7 (+0.11%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 31.94 ( +11.95%), +8.39% to $ 34.62
Exodus Movement (2.
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 0
- Cumulative net streams: 46.63 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.22 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 0
- Cumulative net streams: 3.92 billion dollars
- Collected ETH holdings ~ 3.98 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
Flows overnight
Today’s chart
- Bitcoin dominance has reached 65%, currently trading near the upper limit of a well-defined parallel channel that has led the trend since mid-May.
While you were asleep
In ether
