By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market remains choppy, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) little changed on a 24-hour basis and bitcoin price consolidating over $90,000. Sounds boring, right?
But this price action actually validates the oversold conditions signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Tuesday when BTC first explored lows below $90,000. On the same day, CoinDesk announced that the RSI reading needs to be validated from those signature doji candles — the ones with lower wicks — that tell you sellers might be losing grip.
Guess what? These clues appeared in the form of back-to-back daily candles with long lower wicks (check the TA section), signaling the inability of bears to hold prices below $90,000. Coupled with the oversold RSI, it looks like the downtrend may be running out of gas.
The timing of this signal could not be more interesting because the much delayed US non-farm payrolls data for September is scheduled to be released later today.
This is definitely old news. In addition, the Labor Department has said it will not release the October report, which could widen the gap with the Fed over rate cuts. But while there’s a good chance the market will ignore this number, right now the crypto market is battered and bruised, hungry for good news.
Market sentiment is crushed, fear is rife, and bitcoin is already down 30% from its all-time high of $126,000. Investors have camped on the bearish side, downgrading expectations for a Fed rate cut to 30% from 98% a month ago.
This is precisely the set-up where a piece of good news – a massively weak wage data that, e.g. booster rate-cut bets – can trigger a short squeeze and a rally. So with all these pieces in place, don’t be surprised if we see some bullish volatility light up the market.
In other important news worth noting, Ripple executives are openly discussing the possibility of introducing native staking on the XRP Ledger to expand XRP’s role in DeFi.
Base co-founder Jesse Pollak announced on X that his personal token, JESSE, will launch on the Base app, expanding the layer-2 ecosystem.
In traditional markets, the yen continued to weaken against the dollar, even as domestic government bond yields rose sharply, a sign of fiscal stress that was reflected in currency markets. Traders are watching closely for signs that the Bank of Japan may intervene to stop the currency’s slide. Pay attention.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- Nov 20 at 8.30am: Canada October PPI. Headline YoY (Prev 5.5%), MoM (est. 0.3%
- Nov 20 at 8.30: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Est. -3.1.
- Nov 20 at 8:30 am: The delayed US jobs report is expected to be released.
- Nov 20 at 10: USA Oct. Existing home sales Est. 4.08 million
- 20 November at 11: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on “Financial Stability.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 20: Webull (BULL), post-market, $0.02.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- unlocking 7.29% of its circulating supply, worth $25.71 million.
- unlocks 2.97% of its circulating supply.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.5% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $91,891.98 (24 hours: +0.48%)
- ETH is up 0.69% to $3,009.62 (24h: -2.6%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.79% to 2,950.83 (24h: -0.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0073% (8.0088% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.18
- Gold futures are down 0.52% at $4,061.70
- Silver futures are down 0.38% at $50.66
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.65% at 49,823.94
- The Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,835.57
- The FTSE is up 0.72% to 9,575.42
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.94% to 5,594.21
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.10% at 46,138.77
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 6,642.16
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.59% at 22,564.23
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.81% at 30,278.41
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,070.06
- US 10-year Treasury is up 0.8 bps at 4.139%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 1.09% to 6,734.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.42% to 25,072.00
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.54% to 46,458.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.29% (+0.01%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03278 (-0.81%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,070 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $38.22
- Total fees: 3.33 BTC / $302,253
- CME Futures open interest: 133,250 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 22.6 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 6.14%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows BTC’s daily price action in candlestick format with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) in the lower panel.
- Back-to-back daily candles with long tails (wicks) indicate that bears are not keeping prices below $90,000.
- This, combined with the oversold reading on the RSI, suggests the possibility of a price bounce.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $257.29 (-1.72%), +1.83% at $261.99 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $69.72 (-8.98%), +1.31% at $70.63
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.76 (+0.7%), +3.45% at $26.65
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.39 (-3.63%), +0.85% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.1 (-6.57%), +3.60% at $11.50
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.35 (-4.23%), +3% at $13.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.39 (-0.26%), +7.47% at $16.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.22 (-5.46%), +4.11% at $10.64
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.4 (-3.42%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.48 (-7.48%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $186.5 (-9.82%), +2.7% at $191.54
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $19.73 (-8.28%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.87 (-6.45%), +2.84% at $10.15
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.69 (-7.72%), +8.18% at $2.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.78 (-7.77%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $75.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $58.28 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$37.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.86 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million
Source: Farside Investors
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