Disclaimer: The analyst, who wrote this piece, owns shares in Strategy (Mstr).
Since the start of this month, a growing divergence has emerged between Bitcoin
and Bitcoin-Hodler Strategy (MSTR). While Bitcoin is climbed at about 13%, approaching $ 110,000 mark, Mstr shares have slipped 3%and traded around $ 372.
This performance gap has become more marked since mid-May and raises questions about market atmosphere towards the company pioneering the Bitcoin Treasury strategy for businesses. Despite playing a leading role in this movement, the strategy’s stock has not mirrored Bitcoin’s latest rally.
A key factor is the rapid increase in the number of public companies adopting similar Bitcoin strategies. According to data from Bitcointreasuries.net, over 113 public companies are globally holding Bitcoin on their balance, which marks an increase of 11 new participants in the last 30 days.
Many people seem to follow the strategy’s playbook, but the company’s market prize compresses, indicating that its early mover benefits can fade.
The strategy multiple to net asset value (MNAV), which reflects how the market appreciates the company in relation to its Bitcoin stocks, has dropped to 1.80 one of its lowest points in the past year.
This number is calculated by sharing the business value (EV) of the market value of its Bitcoin stocks. EV includes MSTR’s current market capital, convertible debt and preferred shares (such as StrK and STRF) minus the company’s latest reported cash balance.
A lower MNAV limits the strategy’s ability to issue new equity without significant dilution of existing shareholders, although it remains over 1x, which retains some ceiling height.
The strategy’s recent 4,020 BTC purchase, the smallest since May 5, also reveals a significant change in the financing structure. The acquisition was funded not only through a joint share, but also through preferred securities – 81.7% from joint stock, 15.9% from STRK and 2.4% from StrF, according to Mstr analyst Ben Werkman.
This diversification indicates that the company strategically taps alternative instruments through its market (ATM) offering, possibly to mitigate shareholder dilution and optimize capital collection in a compressed MNAV environment.
Read more: Strategy buys 4,020 Bitcoin for $ 427m, which brings Total Stash to over 580,000 BTC
