By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is rallying against the US dollar, a pattern that has emerged several times since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election.
The cryptocurrency is up over 10% since the outbreak of war in the Middle East over the weekend. Prices nearly tested the $74,000 mark at one point yesterday and are up over 2% in the past 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 index and major tokens including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) rose 2% or more.
For bulls, the surge is notable not just for its size but for the backdrop: It’s unfolding amid risk aversion in global stocks and alongside a strengthening dollar. The dollar index ( DXY ) is up over 1% this week, hitting a high of 99.68 on Wednesday, a level last seen in November.
This combination may surprise many market observers. A stronger dollar typically weighs on dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin, and historically the two have tended to move in opposite directions.
Yet the inverse correlation has been repeatedly challenged since Trump returned to the White House and promised pro-crypto policies. Both BTC and DXY rose in the lead up to and after the election, both fell in March-April 2025. Now both are back on track.
Meanwhile, demand for BTC from the US appears to be strengthening, a constructive signal for the market. The Coinbase Premium Index – which measures the spread between prices on the Nasdaq-listed exchange and offshore giant Binance – rose to 0.0227% today, the highest since December, according to data source Coinglass. A premium on Coinbase is typically a sign of stronger demand from US investors.
The focus now is whether the cryptocurrency can penetrate the historic make-or-break zone around $74,000. A decisive breakout is likely to bolster investor confidence and draw additional buyers into the market.
Some traders are also keeping an eye on the US macro economy.
“The US employment situation report for February is scheduled for March 6, followed by the CPI on March 11 and the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian stock exchange Giottus.com, said in an email. “All of these are potential volatility catalysts for global risk assets, including crypto.”
Other macro observers remain cautious, noting that the current calm attached to the US pledge to escort and insure oil tankers could prove fragile.
“All it takes is one Iranian missile for this fragile equilibrium to fall into serious discontinuity. The threat of an Iranian missile hitting dirt remains real, and this is not something that can be remedied any time soon,” noted economist Robin Brooks in a blog post. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 5 March at 8.30am: US initial jobless claims for week ending February 28 (previous 212,000)
- 5 March at 8:30 AM: US Non-Farm Productivity QoQ prel for Q4 (Prev 4.9%)
- 5 March at 4.30pm: US Fed balance sheet update for the period ending March 4
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 5: Rumble (RUM), after market, -$0.10
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The Uniswap DAO votes across two linked proposals to extend v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight L2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 5.
- The Gnosis DAO votes to provide a grant to fund the continued support, infrastructure and maintenance of the Revoke.cash security platform. Voting ends March 5.
- Unlocks
- March 5: Athena (ENA) unlocks 2.24% of its circulating supply, worth $18.35 million.
- The token is launched
- March 5: WhiteBit Token (WBT) appears on Kraken.
- March 5: Limitless (LMTS) to list on Coinbase.
- March 5: Opinion (OPN) to be listed on Binance, BitMart, BingX, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.13% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $72,849.18 (24 hours: +2.42%)
- ETH is down 1.08% to $2,135.84 (24 hours: +3.81%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.25% to 2,072.03 (24 hours: +2.75%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps to 2.91%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8744% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.12% to 98.99
- Gold futures are up 1.06% at $5,174.30
- Silver futures are up 2.28% at $84.51
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.90% at 55,278.06
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.28% at 25,321.34
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.30% at 10,598.92
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.13% to 5,878.37
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.49% at 48,739.41
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.78% at 6,869.50
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.29% at 22,807.48
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 33,942.90
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.26% at 3,619.17
- US 10-year Treasuries are up 3 bps at 4.08%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,870.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,113.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.18% at 48,710.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.78% (0.9%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02938 (0.38%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 999 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.09
- Total fees: 3.03 BTC / $215,909
- CME Futures open interest: 111,485 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.1 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.88%
Technical Analysis
- The chart from Coinglass shows daily open interest in zcash (ZEC) futures.
- Open interest refers to the number of active futures contracts at a given time.
- The figure has risen to almost 1.50 million ZEC and has surged past a downward trend.
- The breakout indicates renewed interest in ZEC futures and higher volatility ahead.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $208.93 (+14.57%), +0.10% at $209.14 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.34 (+17.70%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.29 (+7.27%), -0.22% at $9.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.53 (+8.11%), +0.24% at $16.57
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.84 (+3.53%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.66 (+7.79%), -0.75% at $10.58
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $12.16 (+12.28%), unchanged in premarket
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.20 (+8.76%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.27 (+5.66%), unchanged in pre-market
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.86 (+11.29%), -0.49% at $36.68
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $146.44 (+10.37%), -0.30% at $146.00
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $8.13 (+11.98%), -1.60% at $8.00
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.08 (+37.58%), +1.85% at $1.10
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.22 (+6.09%)
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.62 (+15.49%), +0.73% at $9.69
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $461.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $169.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.83 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
