By James Van Straten (all times one unless otherwise stated)

With just over a week to go until the end of March, the first quarter has been disappointing, especially with regard to price action rather than narrative for the crypto industry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 10%, its worst performance in the first quarter since 2020, and Ether (ETH) has released its weakest first quarter since its inception. So far, Bitcoin has been relatively stable in March.

Markets remain in the latter stages of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period of historically marked with uncertainty and volatility. This is expected to continue at least through the end of April.

As the quarter’s approaches could negative liquidity and position control lead to increased volatility and whipsaw preaching, according to the London Crypto Club, founders of a trade newsletter.

Despite short -term weakness, the couple maintains a bullish views that enter the second quarter. A slightly more Dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at his March meeting – even without actual bets – combined with a weakened US dollar, increased tax expenses in the European Union and an American economy that is slower but not collapsing, all factors are will support a strong three months.

Bitcoin started selling on Thursday after Trump’s lack of a concrete update on a strategic reserve in Bitcoin or a tax-free crypto-capital won policy.

“Market participants were hoping for a tax -free capital tightening or a Bitcoin National Reserve Accumulation Plan,” noted Blockhead Research Network (children). “Instead, Trump reiterated his general support for the crypto industry and highlighted StableCoin’s role in maintaining the US dollar dominance in global trade. While supportive in the long term, the lack of immediate political obligations is a short -term bearish signal.”

Children look digital assets fight to maintain breakouts where accumulation continues at lower levels, especially for altcoins.

“Despite the short-term weakness in the short term, we recommend that we remain heavily invested as the market could respond quickly to the next positive development. Support levels are not far from current prices,” Chrn told Coindesk in an email. Stay aware!

What to look at

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 23 at 1 p.m. 20:30: S&P Global Releases (Flash) Japan March Producer Price Index (PPI) Data.
    • Composed PPI Prev. 52
    • Manufacture of PPI Prev. 49
    • Services PPI Prev. 53.7
  • March 24, 9:45: S&P Global Releases (Flash) US March Producer Price Index (PPI) Data.
    • Composed PPI Prev. 51.6
    • Manufacture of PPI Prev. 52.7
    • Services PPI Prev. 51
• Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
  • March 27: Kulr Technology Group (Kulr), Post -Market, $ -0.02
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), Pre-Market, C $ 0.38

Token -events

• Management votes and calls
  • Aave Dao discusses the activation of aave umbrella, a system designed to replace Aave Safety Module. It would allow users to insert their Aave Atokens to cover potential bad debt and earn rewards for it.
  • Sky DAO votes on a executive proposal that will include a number of key initiatives, including the implementation of multiple speed changes, updating the Smart Burn Engine’s “hop” parameter, which allocates 55,000 USDs to a BUG -BOUNTY payment, transfer 3 million USDS to integration increases the financing and triggers a spark -proxy -trill form, including.
  • Compound DAO discusses the implementation of Comp Staker, a stack mechanism aimed at improving governance and participation from Comp holders. It would allow token holders to insert and delegate their votes to earn a share of protocol revenue.
  • March 21, 11:30: Flare to host an X Spaces Session on Flare 2.0.
  • March 25, 1 AM: Crypto.com to hold a ask me something (AMA) session with his co -founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.
• Unlock
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to lock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $ 307.8 million.
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) to lock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $ 26.81 million.
  • April 1: SUI (SUI) to lock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $ 147.01 million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to lock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $ 114.79 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to lock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $ 11.81 million.
• Token lists
  • March 21: Pancakeswap (cake) to be performed on Hashkey.
  • March 21: ORCA (ORCA) to be listed on Upbit.
  • March 31: Binance to Devist Usdt, FDUSD, TUND, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Issuing platform pump.Fun introduced its pumpswap service on Thursday, allowing symbols made on the platform to be traded on the new service instead of Decentral Exchange (DEX) Raydium where they were previously listed.
• Pump introduced a new fee structure that replaced the 6 SOL MIGHRATION fee with a 0.25% commercial fee.
• It also plans for a revenue sharing model that incenters creators to focus on long-term token growth by earning revenue on any trade that changes away from the previous dump-on-building dynamic.
• Pump.Fun Metrics shows a decrease in token launches and training, where 29,000 coins were launched on March 8, but only 264 graduation and success rates – or the tokens listed on a DEX – dip below 1%.

Derivatives Location

• Bitcoin Futures Open Interest has dropped to 628,000 BTC from the weekly height of almost 650,000 BTC along with marginally positive eternal financing rates. The combination indicates that BTC’s 24-hour fall in prices is largely characterized by the settlement of Lange rather than new shorts.
• Open interest in Eth Futures, meanwhile, remains elevated at record highs over 10 million ETH in a character trader continues to map a falling market.
• XRM, BNB, TRX is prominent on the Altcoin market and boasts a positive cumulative volume -Delta indicator in the last 24 hours. It is a sign of net purchases in these markets.
• BTC’s short and almost dated settings are reversed Bearish, indicating a renewed demand for expiring in the May outlet. Ether -Set is more expensive than BTC.

Market Movement:

• BTC is down 0.73% from 16:00 A Thursday to $ 83,935.26 (24 hours: -1.43%)
• ETH has fallen 1.19% of $ 1,960.00 (24 hours: -1.18%)
• Coindesk 20 has fallen 1.29% at 2,648.64 (24 hours: -2.08%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has increased by 5 BPS of 3.06%
• BTC financing rate is 0.0108% (3.95% annual) on Binance

• DXY has increased 0.16% at 104.02
• Gold is down 0.12% to $ 3,033.22/oz
• Silver has fallen 1.08% of $ 33.11/OZ
• Nikkei 225 closed Thursday -0.25% at 37,677.06
• Hang bed closed Thursday -2.19% at 23,689.72
• FTSE has dropped 0.49% at 8,659.67
• Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 0.76% at 5,410.04
• Djia closed Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32
• S&P 500 CLOSED —0.22% at 5,662.89
• Nasdaq closed -0.33% at 17,691.63
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,060.24
• S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,471.90
• US 10-year-old Treasury is down 2 bps of 4.23%
• E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are down 0.21% at 5,700.50
• E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES ARE DOWN 0.25% AT 19.828.75
• E-MINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Index Futures are down 0.19 at 42,204.00

Bitcoin -Statistics:

• BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 808 EH/S
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 48.01
• Total fees: 5.47 BTC / $ 465.938
• Cme futures open interest: 150,645 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz
• BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 7.79%

Technical analysis

• The XRP/ETH Daily diagram shows the MacD histogram, a momentum indicator, recently produced a lower high, diverging bearishly from the continued increase in the relationship.
• Divergensen suggests that XRP can underpoint ether in the coming days.

Crypto shares

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed on Thursday of $ 302.07 (-0.71%), dropped 0.83% to $ 299.55 on market
• COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): CLOSED TO $ 190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% to $ 188.93
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed to C $ 18.15 (+2.54%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% to $ 12.43
• Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% to $ 7.75
• Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 8.59 (-1.04%), dropped 0.93% to $ 8.51
• CLEANSPARK (CLSK): CLOSED TO $ 7.75 (-3.25%), fallen 0.77% to $ 7.69
• COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 14.98 (-1.45%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 38.82 (-3.05%)
• Exodus Movement (2.

Etf is flowing

SPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Tream: $ 165.7 million
• Cumulative net streams: 36.05 billion dollars
• Collected BTC holdings ~ 1,120 million.

SPOT ETH ETFS

• Daily Net Tream: -$ 12.5 million
• Cumulative net streams: 2.45 billion dollars
• Collected ETH holdings ~ 3,452 million.

Source: Father’s page -Investors

Flows overnight

Today’s chart

• The number of active or open positions in the $ 100,000 strike call has decreased, while open interest rates in lower strike calls between $ 85,000 and $ 90,000 have risen along with renewed interest in lower levels.
• The data shows a cautious market mood.

While you were asleep

• North Korea-connected Lazarus group has more bitcoin than Elon Musk’s Tesla (Coindesk): The group behind the $ 1.4 billion BYBIT Ether theft held 13,441 Bitcoin, 16% more than Tesla, according to Arkham Intelligence.
• The polymarket is 90% accurate for predicting world events: Research (Coindesk): Polymarket predictions reach up to 94% accuracy when extreme probabilities are excluded, although users often inflate odds due to bias, crew behavior, low liquidity and risk-seeking trends.
• Australia is proposing new crypto-regulation structure, plans to integrate digital assets into the economy (Coindesk): The government intends to support tokenization, real in the real world and central bank’s digital currencies to help modernize its financial system, according to a tax box.
• DOLLAR SPECIAL SUBSCRIPTIONS MARCHING Market Pain for Foreign Investors (Financial Times): S&P 500’s fall of 4% this year has translated into over 8% losses for eurozone investors as US currency weakens over concerns over US economic growth.
• Japan’s households cut cash in record speed when inflation bites (Bloomberg): Cash stocks dropped to 105.3 trillion yen ($ 707 billion) in the last quarter of 2024, marking a draft of 3.4% over the year-the-steepest fall since 1998.
• Oil set to other equal weekly winnings on Iran sanctions, planned OPEC+ Cuts (Reuters): Brent and WTI-Futures have been set to their biggest weekly increase since January, powered by new US sanctions against Iranian oil and plans from seven exporters to limit the supply through the middle of 2026.

In ether