The tranquility that has returned to the market for Bitcoin (BTC) can be short-lived, which potentially sets the stage for a storm that can trigger significant award volatility, according to the insight of the decentralized crypto on-chain options platform that originates.
Since March 12, BTC has settled in the $ 80k-$ 85K series in a consolidation typically seen after a remarkably directional move. Prices were reduced from $ 100,000 to under $ 80,000 in previous weeks due to several factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs and disappointment over the lack of new purchases in the US strategic BTC reserve.
With the latest consolidation, key wolatility irritations have fallen, approaching monthly low. Volatility, however, is average-adversary, which means that the low volatility regime could soon pave the way for the pricing bulbulens, according to Aftor.
“BTC’s weekly volatility on the money (ATM) is dipped below 50% to 49% and is approaching monthly low level of 45%. Realized volatility has also dropped from 91% at the beginning of the month to 54% today,” wrote Nick Forster, founder of therefore, in a new note shared with Coindesk.
It is important to remember that volatility is price agnostic, which means that the expected increase in volatility does not indicate the direction of the price movement in Bitcoin.
“Volatility is average and turns, so we can expect it to rise soon, probably levels seen in February (60-70%),” added Forster.
Whether prices rise or fall, volatility may rise, suggesting that significant price fluctuations may occur in both directions.
According to Afraive, several factors could trigger volatility, including “Army (or lack of them) in Ukraine or significant shifts in crypto -regulation policy under the Trump administration.”
The Afraen is the world’s leading AI-driven options that are leading, with a total value locked at almost $ 100 million. The protocol has recorded a $ 15 billion cumulative trading volume to date.
Wednesday’s decision on the Federal Reserve Rate could also move markets.
The central bank is likely to keep the rates unchanged, with dealers who prize two to three efforts later this year. But a Dovish surprise could charge bulls’ engines for a sharp move louder.
However, potential bold speed cuts may be limited, according to BlackRock.
“The markets have priced in about two to three 25 base points points down this year, versus expectations of only one earlier this year. We believe this reflects us recession fears, although economic condition does not point to a downturn. Even if long -term uncertainty is damaging growth, we still see sustained inflation limiting how much fat can cut,” Blackrock said in a weekly note.
The expected volatility boom could happen with the disadvantage if the stock markets continue to fall, which accelerates the fall in crypto prices.
