By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell back below $70,000 as war in the Middle East and US inflation data due later today keep investors cautious.
The latest failure to build momentum above $70,000 followed reports that Iran was laying mines along the already troubled Strait of Hormuz, a major global oil choke point. Bullish momentum weakened late Tuesday after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a now-deleted social media post that the US was escorting an oil tanker through the strait.
As usual, disappointment quickly spread from bitcoin to the broader crypto market. Major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and GDP lost 1% or more since midnight UTC, tracking losses in bitcoin. The CoinDesk 20 index also fell 1% to 1,980 points.
According to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FXPro, traders should closely follow the 50-day simple moving average of bitcoin’s price.
“In the near term, the 50-day moving average has proven to be a formidable resistance level, preventing bulls from quickly turning the tide in their favor. This indicator often signals the medium-term trend, and a safe break above it would be an important turning point in the coming days,” he said in an email.
Meanwhile, analysts at Bitfinex said the next moves largely depend on oil prices, US Treasury yields and Fed policy.
Speaking of the Fed, its members will be closely watching the US Consumer Price Index report for February due later on Wednesday. It is expected to show that inflation ticked up to 2.5% year-on-year from January’s 2.4%, according to FactSet. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also seen rising 2.5%.
A higher-than-expected number, given the already resurgent war-led inflation fears, could encourage hawks at the Fed and confirm expectations of no interest rate cuts this year. This in turn can create market volatility. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 11 March at 7:30: Inflation in consumer prices in the US for February yy estimated. 2.5%; core rate YY Est. 2.5%
- March 11: OPEC monthly report
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), pre-market, $0.14
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock DAO votes to approve the Unlock Protocol DAO budget for the first and second quarters, totaling $30,768. Voting ends March 11.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.78% as of 16 ET Tuesday at $69,794.05 (24 hours: -1.92%)
- ETH is down 0.83% to $2,022.17 (24h: -1.99%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.98% to 1,979.50 (24h: -1.79%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 3 bps to 2.78%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0027% (-2.9456% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.24% to 99.04
- Gold futures are down 0.57% at $5,200.00
- Silver futures are down 2.05% at $87.26
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.43% at 55,025.37
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.24% at 25,898.76
- The FTSE 100 is down 0.96% at 10,312.17
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.35% at 5,758.30
- The DJIA closed Tuesday unchanged at 47,706.51
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.21% at 6,781.48
- The Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,697.10
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.25% at 33,270.70
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.32% at 3,607.58
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged at 4.14%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.23% at 6,771.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.26% at 24,917.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.37% at 47,569.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.30% (-(0.08%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0291 (-0.07%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,014 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.31
- Total Fees: 2.7 BTC / $189,651
- CME Futures open interest: 105,265 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.4 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.64%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since last July. It also shows the average price over 50 days.
- Analysts say this 50-day moving average is a crucial level. A break higher could lure more buyers into the market, leading to a stronger rally.
- The outlook remains bearish, while prices are below average.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $196.52 (–1.64%), -0.94% at $194.68 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.83 (+1.56%), -0.41% at $21.74
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.57 (–1.04%), -0.58% at $8.52
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.64 (–0.41%), -0.48% at $14.57
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.46 (+1.98%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.63 (+0.21%), -0.42% at $9.59
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.93 (+0.92%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.36 (+0.08%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $118.09 (+5.59%), -1.38% at $116.46
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.73 (+1.86%), -0.90% at $36.40
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.46 (–0.35%), -0.97% at $137.12
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.98 (+5.52%), -0.78% at $8.91
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (–2.76%), -0.27% at $7.37
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.94 (–2.99%), +2.13% at $0.96
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (–2.50%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $246.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.76 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $12.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.62 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
