Wall Street investment bank Citigroup lowered its 12-month price target for bitcoin and ether (ETH), citing slower regulatory momentum in the US, softer network activity and reduced expectations for ETF inflows.
Citi now sees bitcoin reaching $112,000 and ether $3,175 over the next year, down significantly from previous forecasts of $143,000 and $4,304.
The revised targets still suggest significant upside. Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at the time of publication. Ether was at $2,330.
The bank said inflows remain the key upside driver, although it lowered its 12-month demand assumptions, although recent ETF demand has picked up modestly despite geopolitical uncertainty.
“ETF demand where we reduce the assumption to $10 billion and $2.5 billion (ETH) remains the main positive factor,” analyst Alex Saunders said in Monday’s report.
Crypto markets have struggled to regain momentum after bitcoin’s run to record highs in October, with prices falling amid weak risk appetite and waning post-halving enthusiasm. BTC has been trading below key technical levels, while ether has lagged further, weighed down by soft onchain activity. Despite subdued price developments, ETF inflows have remained robust, helping stabilize the market even as broader macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside.
According to Saunders, the outlook largely depends on US legislation. The analyst said the window to pass digital asset legislation this year is narrowing, with market implied odds falling to around 60%. While broader global politics remains supportive, he argued that overarching US legislation would be a stronger catalyst for institutional flows than incremental rulemaking.
The CLARITY Act, a sweeping bill on US crypto market structure, has cleared the House but remains deadlocked in the Senate as lawmakers negotiate competing proposals, leaving the path forward uncertain.
The legislation is seen as critical because it would establish clear rules on how digital assets are classified and which agencies oversee them, resolving a long-running battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and The Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (CFTC) that has created legal uncertainty for investors and companies.
By defining categories of tokens and setting up registration frameworks for exchanges, the bill aims to reduce regulatory risk and provide the certainty many institutional investors need before allocating more capital to crypto markets.
The analyst also flagged weakening momentum in the crypto market since bitcoin’s peak in October, citing futures liquidations, positioning fatigue and prices below key technical levels. Bitcoin may continue to range trade, with around $70,000 seen as an important psychological level tied to prices ahead of the election.
In the bank’s framework, the bull case hinges on stronger end investor adoption, particularly via ETFs, with a target of $165,000 for bitcoin and $4,488 for ether. The bear case reflects macroeconomic conditions in recession with targets of $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s outlook is more uncertain, the report said, due to its sensitivity to onchain activity, which has been weak recently. Still, there is potential upside from stablecoin growth, tokenization trends, and possible regulatory focus on DeFi, which could lift usage and demand.
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