By Francisco Rodrigues (All times one unless otherwise stated)
Bitcoin is up to about 1.4% over the last 24 hours as investors are awaiting key inflation data in the United States, which could shape the expectations of a much -discussed interest rate cut by Federal Reserve.
Before it hits, however, the European Central Bank announces its own interest decision. It is expected to keep the rates stable, a surprise movement can ruffle a few feathers.
Economists predict a modest increase in US consumer price index (CPI) Due to 7 p.m. 8:30 pm, combined with the nearly 1 million job audit from Bureau of Labor Statistics earlier this week, points to growing chances of betting.
At the Polymarket, Bettor now sees a 79% chance of a 25 base point-rate cutting this month, while the perceived odds on a 50 bps fall have risen to 18% from 5.4% in one week. CME’s FedWatch tool shows dealers located for a 92% chance of a 25 BPS cutting, and an 8% chance of an even deeper.
A rate cut would benefit risk assets and the growing odds of such an event are felt on the market. Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs attracted a total $ 928 million in net inflow yesterday, and Bitcoin hit $ 114,000 for the first time since the beginning of August.
Still, some analysts are gently flashing. Jake Ostrovskis, the head of the OTC trade at Wintermute, pointed out that persistent inflation and slower growth increase stagflation concerns.
Since the end of August, Ostrovskis said, investors have moved away from ether after its better than Bitcoin. Options activity reflects this shift, where dealers protect buyer put ETH and risk conversations for March and June 2026, diping into negative territory.
This “creates a setup where the market feels well uncovered” should be pressed lightly, noticed Ostrovskis. “At the end of the day we are close to the beginning of a speed cutting cycle.”
Meanwhile, gold remains near record heights, with the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio approaching resistance levels that previously signalized crypto bounds, analysts said at QCP Capital.
“If History Rhymes, Bitcoin could be in the process of establishing another bottom, putting the stage for the next big leg higher,” they wrote.
Geopolitical unrest should still not be ignored. Russia violated Poland’s airspace this week and forced NATO to crawl its jets and prompted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to say that this was “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”
Tusk emphasized that there is “no reason to believe that we are on the verge of the war,” and Moscow refused the responsibility for the attack. Stay aware!
What to look at
- Crypto
- Macro
- September 11, 8:30: August US CORE CPI YOY EST. 3.1%, mother est. 0.3%; Cpi yoy est. 2.9%, mother est. 0.3%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
Token -events
- Management votes and calls
- Unlock
- September 11: Aptos To unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $ 50.89 million.
- Token launches
- September 11: Sky must be erected on OKX.
- September 12: Unibase (UB) Must be listed on Binance Alpha, Mexc and others.
Conferences
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Mantel (Mnt) Led a wider Altcoin jump on Thursday and rose to a record height of $ 1.62 on the back of a significant volume of derivatives that exchange citybit.
- The native token for its name-Aak’s Layer-2 network is primarily a management token, but is also far attached when investors appear to ensure a dividend on their inventory.
- The annual return of stitching mnt on coinbase is 71%, far more than 1.86% return holders get to put ether (Eth) on the same platform.
- This has led to the fact that more than two -thirds of MNT’s total supply was set, resulting in a lack of supply of exchanges in the midst of a wave of demand.
- BYBT trading volume hit $ 195 million over the last 24 hours, an increase of 83% over the previous 24 hours.
- Open interest also increased 20% and exceeds 15% of the price, which can be attributed to dealers who open new geared positions to bet on additional upside.
- The new record high price could pave the way for other altcoins to collect as well.
- The “Altcoin season” index rose to 67/100 on Thursday, demonstrating the trader preference to act more speculative and lower liquidity assets such as MNT as opposed to Crypto Majors BTC and ETH.
Derivatives Location
Of Omkar Godbole
- Open interest (Oi) In BTC Futures and Perpetual Futures, listed all over the world, he remains elevated at 736K BTC, just shortly after last month’s record high 748K BTC.
- Over the past 24 hours, the mood has remained relatively unchanged along with tentative trade in futures tied to Altcoins, as dealers adopted a cautious attitude before today’s critical American CPI report.
- Volmex’s one-day BTC Implicated volatility index continues to fluctuate within a month long range of 25% to 50%, indicating that the market does not expect significant volatility from the CPI message. The index recently made up 35.50%and suggested an expected one-day price movement of approx. 1.85%.
- Volatility index associated with ETH, Sun and XRP also remains locked in recent intervals.
- At CME, OI remains in Bitcoin -Futures depressed by Multimonth -Lavlavt, while Oi in ether continues to retreat from the recent record heights.
- However, options show the opposite trend. BTC settings OI has risen to over 50,000 BTC, mostly since April. And Ethers Settings Oi has jumped to 260K ETH, the highest since August 2024.
- On dismissal, the 25-Delta risk change continues to show a bias against putting opportunities in Bitcoin and Ether. Streams on the OTC desktop paradigm continued to pour Bearish, with some dealers picking up the September outlet $ 4,000 Eth put.
Market movements
- BTC has increased by 0.26% from 1 p.m. 16 A Wednesday of $ 113,916.87 (24 hours: +1.5%)
- ETH has risen 1.93% of $ 4,414.68 (24 hours: +2.32%)
- Coindesk 20 has risen 1.24% at 4,209.95 (24 hours: +2.13%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has fallen 7 BPS of 2.8%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0072% (7,9245% annually) On Binance
- DXY has increased by 0.2% at 97.98
- Gold Futures have fallen 0.62% of $ 3,659.30
- Silver Futures have fallen 0.34% of $ 41.46
- Nikkei 225 closed 1.22% at 44,372.50
- Hang bed closed 0.43% at 26,086.32
- FTSE has increased 0.38% at 9,260.84
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.18% at 5,371.28
- DJIA shut down on Wednesday down 0.48% at 45,490.92
- S&P 500 closed 0.3% at 6,532.04
- Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 21,886.06
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.40% at 29.179.39
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.81% at 2,822.97
- US 10-year-old Treasury has risen 1.3 bps by 4.045%
- E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES have increased 0.12% at 6,547.50
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES have increased 0.17% at 23,917.75
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index has risen 0.11% at 45,592.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.14% (-0.37%)
- Ether-Bitcoin ratio: 0.03872 (1.45%)
- Hashrate (Seven-day sliding average): 1030 EH/S.
- Hashprice (place): $ 53.17
- Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $ 456,196
- CME Futures Open Interest: 137.110 BTC
- BTC Priced in gold: 31.5 oz.
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.86%
Technical analysis
- The S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES have carved an increasing wedge pattern in one step to detect heights.
- When a rising wedge, which is a bearish reversing pattern, appears after an extended rally to detect heights, it significantly increases the likelihood of a sharp downward movement. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and the rally is running on fumes.
- A potential sale in futures could weigh over Bitcoin and a wider crypto market.
Crypto shares
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday of $ 315.34 (-1.08%)+0.7% to $ 317.55 on the market
- Circle (CRCL): Closed to $ 113.69 (-3.64%)+1.46% to $ 115.35
- Galaxy Digital (Glxy): Closed to $ 26.08 (-1.88%)+0.73% to $ 26.27
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed to $ 52.62 (-2.21%)+0.72% to $ 53
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 15.86 (-0.44%)+0.82% to $ 15.99
- Riot platforms (RIOT): Closed to $ 16.4 (+7.82%)+0.24% to $ 16.44
- Core scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 15.99 (+10.05%)+0.81% to $ 16.12
- Cleanspark (CLSK): Closed to $ 10.03 (+3.72%)+0.5% to $ 10.08
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): Closed to $ 35.49 (+7.12%)
- Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed to $ 27.49 (+2.77%)unchanged in the market
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): Closed to $ 326.45 (-0.63%)+0.57% to $ 328.30
- Semler Scientific (Smlr): Closed to $ 28.02 (-0.18%)
- Sharplink gaming (Sbet): Closed to $ 16.09 (-3.6%)+2.05% to $ 16.42
- Upexi (Upxi): Closed to $ 5.46 (-0.73%)+2.75% to $ 5.61
- Mei Pharma (Meip): Closed to $ 3.07 (+10.43%)
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily Net Streams: $ 741.5 million
- Cumulative net streams: 55.6 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.3 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 171.5 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 12.86 billion
- Collected Eth Holdings ~ 6.38 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
Today’s chart
- The total circulating supply of stableecoins at Ethereum rose more than $ 14 billion in August, the biggest gain among top blockchains.
- Growth was led by USDC, EXD, USDE.
- The data highlights Ethereum’s dominance in stableecoins, which stands out as one of the few crypto sectors with strong applications in the real world.
While you were asleep
