Bitcoin’s pullback towards $70,000 – trading at $68,000 as Hong Kong hit midday – appears to have been driven more by positioning than conviction, according to market maker Enflux, which said the move largely reflected short-covering after traders leaned bearish amid geopolitical headlines.
“The market is not pricing in disaster, but neither is price resolution,” Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “Shorts leaned into Iran headlines over the weekend, BTC flushed towards 63,000, and when the escalation didn’t immediately spiral into a wider regional war affecting the Gulf and Dubai trade corridors, the pressure began.”
Crypto tends to react faster than traditional assets during geopolitical shocks, Enflux added.
“When bombs fall or sanctions tighten, capital looks for exit routes. In times of uncertainty, BTC becomes a pressure valve,” the firm wrote.
Institutional demand remains an important source of support. Over the past five trading days, BTC ETFs have attracted about $1.45 billion in net inflows.
Boomers to the Rescue Again as Bitcoin ETFs Register $1.5B in approaches in the last 5 days after another big day yesterday. Biggest move for a while, almost all of the original ten spot ETFs also see action = breadth and depth. This after a 50%(!) drawdown and mostly underwater.… pic.twitter.com/eF0VJqiPZ0
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 3, 2026
Onchain and derivative indicators suggest that the market is stabilizing but is yet to regain a strong conviction.
In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that momentum indicators are beginning to recover from recent weakness, with bitcoin’s relative strength index rising to around 41 from 36 the previous week, though still below the neutral 50 level that would signal stronger bullish control.
Spot market conditions have also improved. Trading volume has increased to around $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the previous week, while buying and selling flows in the spot markets have become more balanced, suggesting that the previous wave of aggressive selling has begun to ease.
Derivatives markets remain cautious. Glassnode said the cost of holding leveraged long positions has fallen sharply, while futures trading still shows sellers dominating buyers, signaling continued caution among leveraged traders.
The prediction markets reflect the same cooling of conviction: the probability of bitcoin falling to $65,000 in March has fallen 11 percentage points to 73%, the odds of $60,000 have fallen 10 points to 41%, and a separate Polymarket contract showing bitcoin hitting $60,000 before $80,000 has also fallen 12 points to $80,000.
Taken together, the data suggests that bitcoin has found support for now, but traders remain hesitant to price in either a decisive rally or a deeper selloff.
