Bitcoin briefly broke through the $74,000 resistance zone, which it had rejected four times in two weeks before reversing below that level.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading just above $74,000 on Monday morning, up 2.9% over the past 24 hours and 9.7% on the week. Ether rose 7.7% in 24 hours and 14.3% on the week to $2,261, its strongest weekly performance in months. Solana rose 5.6% on the day and 12% on the week to $93.
Dogecoin hit $0.10 for the first time since early March, up 4.6% daily and 10.6% weekly. BNB rose 3.8% to $683 for a weekly gain of 9.5%. XRP rose 4.2% to $1.47, up 8.9% over seven days.
The move had a short squeeze behind it. CoinGlass data shows $344 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours across 91,978 traders, with short liquidations accounting for $284.9 million, about 83% of the total. Ether shorts were the hardest hit at $127.9 million, followed by bitcoin at $124.5 million and solana at $18.5 million.
The largest single liquidation was a $6.94 million BTC position on Bitfinex. The lopsided ratio confirms that the rally was partly driven by bears being forced out of positions, although the broad altcoin participation and macro backdrop suggest there’s more to it than just a squeeze.
The catalyst was a shift in tone from several directions at once. Trump said the United States was talking to Iran, although Tehran refused to request negotiations or a ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was closed only to ships from “enemies”, a notable softening from the blanket closure that had been in effect.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas to India sailed through the strait Sunday, the first commercial transit since the war began.
Oil reflected the change in mood. Brent was trading around $104 after earlier climbing as high as $106.50 following the Kharg Island strikes, but retreated as the Hormuz headlines hit. WTI fell below $100. The dollar has weakened by 0.3 per cent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, set for their first gain in five days. MSCI’s global equity benchmark steadied after three days of declines.
For crypto, the combination of easing oil, a weaker dollar and even a hint of de-escalation is the exact macro cocktail to loosen the liquidity chain that has suffocated risk assets since the war began.
The weekly figures are the most impressive since before the war. Bitcoin’s 9.7% gain is strong, but the altcoin outperformance is the signal that risk appetite is indeed returning. When ether outperforms bitcoin by 4.6 percentage points and solana outperforms by 2.3 points on a weekly basis, capital rotates down the risk curve instead of hiding in bitcoin.
The Fed meeting on 17-18 March arrives with a different context than it had a week ago.
Oil is still elevated, but the Strait of Hormuz showing signs of reopening is changing the inflation calculus. Dot plots and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will determine whether the market’s hopes for rate cuts survive or are dashed.
