This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a countertrend rising channel on the hourly chart that sits inside a larger downtrend, leaving price action finely balanced.
A clean break above $96,500 would technically be bullish as this level marks the confluence of the channel top and the broader bearish trend line and would argue for a revival of the medium-term uptrend. The weekly chart supports this scenario, with the repeated defense of the 100-week simple moving average signaling downside exhaustion and increasing risk of a bullish reversal.
However, the structure also leaves room for renewed weaknesses if buyers fail to enforce confirmation.
A downward break from the hourly countertrend channel would validate the downtrend line and open the way for another test of the $80,000 area where the market previously found support.
ETH
Ether’s technical structure reflects BTC trading within a countertrend rising channel on the hourly chart amid a broader downtrend. A decisive break above $3,200, the channel resistance, would confirm bullish revival and reveal $3,620, the November 10 lower high resistance.
Downside risks continue if sellers invalidate the countertrend channel. A break below would reinforce the larger downtrend and open recent lows near $2,630 as initial support ahead of a deeper correction.
Overall, $3,200 remains the key level to watch.
XRP
Payments-focused XRP is once again testing the critical $2 support line, which has repeatedly signaled seller exhaustion this year through long-tailed weekly candles. The momentum looks bearish as seen by the sharply declining 5- and 10-week SMAs confirming the bearish momentum.
A break below this level risks triggering the bearer’s capitulation, revealing $1.63, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 rally, as the next major support.
Conversely, consecutive daily closes above $2.30 would invalidate the bearish lower pattern and signal bullish revival. $2 remains the key focal point in this symmetrical setup.
SUN
Solana continues to exhibit range-bound indecision, trading within a sideways channel defined by $145 upper resistance and $120 lower support, with current levels near $134.
The lack of directional momentum continues, leaving the next significant move conditional on a clear break of this consolidation range. Bullish resolution of the range would create room for a move to $160 and higher via measured motion analysis. A downside break would extend the broader downtrend.
