This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin
Bitcoins The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen sharply to 48, decisively breaking below the bullish trend line established since the September low. This breakdown signals a spread of panic and the potential for further volatility compression.
At the same time, the US dollar index’s renewed downward trend provides further tailwinds for a sustained BTC price rise. Notably, the spot-volatility correlation has been predominantly negative since last November, underscoring the inverse relationship at play.
Technically, BTC has successfully regained Friday’s high of $93,104 as support, securing a foothold in bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud on the hourly chart. The next upward impulse is expected on a bullish crossover in the MACD histogram, with attention moving towards the $98,000 to $100,000 resistance band defined by the descending trendline and the main psychological barrier.
The bullish outlook would be threatened if BTC were to break back below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling potential erosion of upward momentum.
XRP
XRP looks set to build a base near $2.20 for the ensuing upside leg after decisively crossing into bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud earlier this week. The prevailing sideways consolidation coincides with a bearish crossover in the hourly MACD histogram; however, the absence of concurrent price erosion underscores the latent underlying strength and supports the case for sustained upward momentum.
Immediate overhead resistance lies at $2.28 and $2.30.
Ether
Ether is extending its advance following a confirmed bear trap, as evidenced by two consecutive green daily candles characterized by minimal wicks, signaling clear buyer control. This bullish price action, reinforced by a positive MACD histogram on the daily time frame, signals a strong likelihood of continued upside, targeting the October 10 low near $3,510.
However, preliminary gains may be contingent on a corrective retracement to the previous resistance now serving as support at $3,100 as the hourly MACD histogram nears a bearish crossover, potentially heralding near-term consolidation before the next leg higher.
Solana
SOL is teasing a breakout from its sideways channel, currently consolidating near the upper limit at $144.74. A decisive break above this level is likely to catalyze further upward momentum towards $165, the level identified using the measured movement method.
However, the hourly MACD histogram is poised for a bearish crossover, signaling a potential short-term pullback or extended consolidation phase before the breakout materializes.
