Crypto’s year-end is still positive, according to Coinbase Institutional’s fourth quarter 2025 “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” report produced in collaboration with Glassnode.
The team characterizes its stance as cautious but biased higher after the October 10 shakeout. Coinbase links the slide to heavy leverage meeting thin order books, then worsened when some exchanges’ auto-leveraging limited market-maker shorts and drained liquidity. The firm says prices stabilized into the weekend, but the band remained tentative as macro jitters resurfaced.
Liquidity and macro are at the center of Coinbase’s outlook.
The firm’s Global M2 Money Supply Index — which Coinbase says has historically tracked bitcoin and tends to lead by about 110 days — began the quarter in a supportive stance, though the report warns conditions could tighten later in Q4. Coinbase also expects two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, a shift it believes could lure some money out of money market funds and back toward risk.
Politics and market plumbing round off what Coinbase calls a constructive setup.
The report highlights stablecoin supply and monthly volumes at or near record levels — proving, according to Coinbase, that more payments and transfers are moving on-chain. It also notes that US spot ETF infrastructure for bitcoin and ether continues to deepen, improving access for traditional allocators and strengthening market depth. These developments, Coinbase argues, are less about headlines and more about rails that keep usage and liquidity flowing through volatility.
In terms of positioning, Coinbase favors bitcoin, citing its “digital gold” role amid lingering doubts about fiscal and monetary discipline. The report says ether is also looking constructive: scaling progress has pushed more activity to layer-2 networks, while fees have fallen and sentiment has improved since earlier this year. An investor survey included in the report shows that a majority of institutions appreciate BTC over the next three to six months, even as many flagged the macro backdrop as the top risk.
Coinbase makes room for digital-asset treasury companies (DATs), describing them as meaningful, relatively stable buyers of BTC and ETH. The firm says the cohort now has a notable share of circulating supply and remains an important source of demand. At the same time, Coinbase acknowledges open questions about long-term business models – especially after the recent weakness of the stock market in the group.
The report does not dismiss dangers in the short term. Coinbase marks missing US data linked to the government shutdown, the chance of liquidity fading in November and uncertainty around DATs as reasons to keep sizing and time horizon disciplined.
Still, the bottom line from Coinbase Institutional is stable: liquidity conditions, political progress and expanding on-chain usage — led by stablecoins and maturing ETF plumbing — remain supportive through year-end, with bitcoin best placed to lead if those supports hold.
