Bitcoin’s
Double top prospects over $ 100,000 guarantee caution, but a full-blown 2022-style crash looks unlikely, unless an unexpected black swan is hitting, according to the digital asset banking group Sygnum’s head of investment surveys Katalin Tischhauser.
“The crypto market is highly mood-driven as basic valuations are challenging; therefore, technical analysis signals such as double top warrant caution. Having said, a full-blown crash needs a catalyst such as Terra-collapse of 2022 or the FTX blowing. Sticking of a similar black swan,” Interview.
Bitcoin has spent 50 days mainly shopping back and forth between $ 110,000 and $ 100,000, signaling an exhaustion of the act near the highs reached in January this year. It has prompted several observers, including veteran-technical analyst Peter Brandt, to consider the possibility of the BTC trend flipping Bearish with a double-top pattern.
Double Top includes two consecutive tops at about the same price – near $ 110,000 in BTC’s case – with a trendline drawn through the low point between these tops. The low point in BTC’s case is the early April -Dias for $ 75,000. Analysts are concerned that a potential double top collapse involving a downturn from $ 110,000 and a fall below $ 75,000 could lead to a crash to about $ 27,000. Yes, you read it right. Such a crash would mean a 75% slide from tops.
Technical patterns, such as the double peak, often become self-fulfilling prophecy-When dealers have first seen the pattern, their collective action strengthens the expected result. So it is natural for the prospects of double top over $ 100,000 to cause some caution and price drop.
However, technical alone rarely causes a pricing accident of 75%. For example, BTC’s crashes from $ 70,000 to $ 16,000 happened during the 12 months to November 2022, when Fed’s interest -high cycle exposed asset classes such as Crypto, where excess speculation was built up, seting the stage for the death of Terra Blockchain and FTX Exchange. Both events caused massive destruction of wealth.
Flows-led Bull Run
However, the latest rally is mainly driven by institutional currents rather than the story or the pretense that Defi is better than traditional funding or Ethereum is the new world computer noticed by Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal last year.
Since their debut at Nasdaq in January 2024, the 11 Spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFS) Has registered net inflow of over $ 48 billion per year. Data traced by Farside Investors. In the meantime, BTC’s adoption as a corporate school assets has taken the pace and added the bull’s momentum. From the time of writing, 141 public companies held 841,693 BTC, according to Bitcointreasuries.net.
The latest Bull Run’s flow -powered character makes it more resilient than the previous bull markets, according to Tischhauser.
“Institutions implement strict due diligence and risk assessment before adding a new asset class like Bitcoin to the Model Portfolio. But when they do, the possible long -term allocation. This trend of sticky institutional allocation has just begun and the resulting demand will continue to provide price support for some time,” Tischhauser told Coindk.
Tischhauser explained that these investment vehicles are sucking liquidity and leaning demand for dynamics in favor of a continued increase.
“These investment vehicles suck liquidity out of the market, which means that every time a new big ticket investor hits the market with bids, this addresses smaller and smaller supply, and the bullish influence on prices becomes more pronounced,” Tischhauser noted.
The Half Cycle may be dead
The Bearish double-top crash scenario seems plausible for many observers, as we are in the year after half, which has historically marked Bull Market tops and paves the way for many years of bear markets.
Halving is a programmed code in Bitcoin’s blockchain that reduces the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last halving took place in April 2024 and reduced the BTC reward per year. Block to 3,125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
However, the halving cycle may not unfold as expected, as sticky institutional adoption has a greater impact on the price than miners. In addition, BTC sold by miners who regulatory offload coins earned to finance operating costs now accounts for a small percentage of the average daily trading volume.
“The Change in Market Leadership Means The Four-Year Halving Cycle May Not Play Out Religious AS It did before. Earlier, Most Btc Holders Were Miners, and The Btc Issued Per Year Was A Huge Percentage of the Outstanding Bitcoin Supply. Now, The BTC Mined is 0.05-0.1% of the Average BTC Daily Trading Volume and Halving This Supply Has No Impact On the Supply/Demand Balance In Market.
