By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market is in the red again, with bitcoin showing signs of what forex traders would refer to as “CHoCH” or change of character. In this case, it is tipping bearish.
Since last October, bitcoin bulls have ruled the options market, piling up calls of $100,000 and above on Deribit, pushing those strikes to the top of the open interest list. Fast forward to today and the change is evident.
The $95,000 put option has open interest of $1.80 billion, just slightly less than the $1.85 billion locked in the most popular option, the $140,000 call. Puts at strikes $80,000, $85,000 and $90,000 also carry open interest of $1.40 billion-$1.55 billion.
The change in grade is a sign that the market’s attitude to risk is evolving. It’s not just jargon, but a tool traders use to spot potential trend reversals. In an uptrend, it occurs when the price breaks below a previous swing low, signaling that the bullish march may be losing steam.
That is precisely the case in BTC, whose spot price recently fell below $107,250, cutting through a low from early September. The move invalidated the bullish higher highs, higher lows pattern. As bulls tried to recover today, they fell short, reinforcing the shift.
The result? BTC’s price was trading near $105,000, down 1% over the past 24 hours. Major altcoins, such as ether , and GDP recorded significant losses, and the CoinDesk 20 index fell more than 2%.
Indices linked to memecoins, computers and smart contract tokens ex-ether all fell, representing broader market weakness. The DeFi Select index stood out with a 6% increase, largely due to its largest component, Uniswap’s UNI token, which rose 23%.
UNI’s rally took place after protocol founder Hayden Adams proposed a plan to enable protocol fees, burn UNI tokens using those fees, and remove 100 million UNI from the treasury, moving the model towards deflation.
In other important news, the US Treasury Department and the IRS announced new guidelines that opened doors for Wall Street-traded crypto products to generate stake returns for investors.
In traditional markets, concern is rising over the decline in the share price of business development companies such as Blue Owl Capital ( OWL ), despite broader market strength. For some observers, this decline signals distress in the high-interest, riskiest segment of private credit. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- Nov 11 at 7: Brazil October Inflation. Heading rate YY Est. 4.75%, MoM Est. 0.16%.
- Nov 11 at 08.15: ADP Employment Changes Weekly (Prev 14.25K).
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Uniswap votes on a proposal by GFX Labs to create a “Community Proposal Factory” (CPF), a subDAO designed to lower the barrier to governance. Voting ends November 11.
- Unlocks
- November 11: to unlock 2.11% of its circulating supply valued at $32.35 million.
- The token is launched
- November 11: Adix (ADIX) to list on Gate.
- November 11: KuCoin discontinues its spot pre-market product.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.59% as of 16 ET Monday at $104,994.61 (24 hours: -0.78%)
- ETH is up 0.4 to $3,555.25 (24h: -1.06%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.08% to 3,424.67 (24h: -1.92%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.00013% (-0.3132% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.58
- Gold futures are up 0.58% at $4,146.00
- Silver futures are up 0.88% at $50.76
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.14% at 50,842.93
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.18% at 26,696.41
- The FTSE rose 0.84% to 9,868.88
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.5% to 5,692.52
- The DJIA closed Monday up 0.81% at 47,368.63
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.54% at 6,832.43
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.27% at 23,527.17
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.35% at 30,316.63
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.73% at 3,107.50
- The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.9 bps to 4.122%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% at 6,843.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.34% at 25,626.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 47,449.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 60.02% (0.14%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03398 (0.96%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,054 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $42.79
- Total fees: 3.85 BTC / $408,527
- CME Futures open interest: 137,570 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 25 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.04%
Technical Analysis
- The ether-bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC) remains stuck in a descending channel, implying ether underperformance.
- Traders should watch out for a potential breakout, as such a move would mean increased volatility for ether and the broader altcoin market.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $317.93 (+2.84%), -1.11% at $314.40 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $104.1 (+0.93%), -0.85% at $103.22
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.79 (+0.73%), -1.23% at $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $46.59 (+3.35%), -0.32% at $46.44
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.58 (-1.83%), -0.58% at $15.49
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.32 (+1.82%), -0.81% at $17.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.29 (-4.46%), -2.33% at $18.84
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.03 (-3.47%), -5.52% at $14.20
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $53.58 (-2.74%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $21.86 (+1.11%), -3.02% at $21.20
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $238.88 (-1.26%), -1.31% at $235.75
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.27 (+6.05%), +1.40% at $29.68
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.95 (-0.08%), unchanged in pre-market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.35 (+1.36%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.26 (+7.62%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $1.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $59.95 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.33m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily Net Flows: $0M
- Cumulative net flows: $13.88 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.56 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- Bitcoin’s $588B Range Masks Market Vulnerabilities: 10x Research (CoinDesk): 10x Research’s Markus Thielen says about 5.9 million coins changed hands at prices between $100,000 and $126,000, leaving many recent buyers exposed to a drop below $100,000,003 against a $900 liquidity gap.
- Diversification, not hype, now drives digital asset investment: Sygnum (CoinDesk): A survey found that professional allocators prefer actively managed multicoin portfolios to single-token bets, and more than 70% would increase ETF exposure if the stake support is approved by the authorities.
- Gold extends gains on US fiscal worries, rate cut expectations (Bloomberg): The precious metal hovered near $4,140 after a government restart deal delayed the release of long-delayed reports expected to show weaker growth and strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs.
- Prediction Markets Say US Government Shutdown Ends As Health Care Struggle Approaches (CoinDesk): On Polymarket, traders put the chance that the federal government will reopen at 96% for 12-15. November, in line with an expected House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.
- Gemini Falls After Missing Earnings Estimates in First Report Since IPO (CoinDesk): Crypto exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) reported a loss of $6.67 per share.
