Circle (CRCL) is the most important player in the stableecoin ecosystem, according to Investment Bank William Blair, which initiated coverage of the company with a “better than” rating and a long-lasting bullish thesis.
The company sees Circle as a central strength in the transition from Fiat to blockchain-based payments, especially in cross-border B2B transactions, a market worth as much as $ 24 trillion, according to the report.
The bank’s dissertation rests on the belief that stableecoin trading, led by USDC, will replace Fiat in global business payments. Circle, which primarily earns money through interest rates earned on USDC reserves, is expected to see that the income stream is growing as more institutions adopt stableecoins for faster, cheaper international transfers.
William Blair projects USDC’s market value to double in 2027 and reaches almost $ 150 billion. In this scenario, Circle’s adjusted EBITDA could surpass $ 1 billion, with margins expanded as the company diversifies beyond its largest distribution partner, Coinbase (Coin).
While Circle’s current revenue model is highly dependent on the Treasury, the bank believes the real upside is in infrastructure that Circle is based to operate commercial use of USDC. Circle Payments Network (CPN), a smart contract-based system designed to connect banks, blockchains and fintechs and ARC, a dedicated LAG-1 blockchain compatible with Ethereum, are the most important long-term bets.
Circle’s biggest risk, notes the bank, is timing. Much of USDC’s current use is still limited to crypto trade, not trading. Wider adoption of stablecoins in business will take time.
Interest rate reductions, while lowering Circle’s dividend income, can ironically help operate USDC by reducing the cost of keeping stablecoins over Fiat.
Regulatory clarity is another obstacle. Genius ACT has provided the basis for us stableecoin supervision, but uncertainties remain around yield offers and the token classifications.
The report also highlights the implications for Coinbase, which serves part of USDC’s reserve yield and acts as Circle’s largest distribution partner. William Blair believes that Coinbase is underestimated as a strategic player in USDC admission and expects a strong future revenue growth from his role in the ecosystem.
Although Circle deals with a prize-57 times expected 2026 EBITDA-APPLAYS THE BANK that the valuation is justified in view of its long-term surplus potential. If Circle succeeds in making USDC the global standard for cross -border trade, this prize could pay off.
