Circle ( CRCL ) has recently outperformed other crypto-linked stocks, a move that investment banker William Blair said reflects more than changing macro conditions.
“It is tempting to attribute recent strength to rising oil prices and perhaps a more hawkish Fed,” analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury wrote in a Thursday note to clients.
“However, we believe there is more at stake, including USDC market cap resilience despite a crypto pullback and growing appreciation for Circle’s economic model and stablecoin infrastructure leadership,” the analysts said.
The bank reiterated its outperform rating on the stock, arguing that the rally, which has lifted shares about 126% from a February low, reflects improved sentiment toward stablecoin infrastructure rather than short-term market noise.
Shares were 1.2% higher at press time, trading around $114.20.
Crypto-related stocks have largely followed and often amplified the recent downturn in digital assets, with shares of exchanges, miners and crypto-tax companies falling as bitcoin retreated from its late-2025 highs.
Shares such as Coinbase (COIN) and other crypto-exposed companies have typically moved in step with digital asset prices, reflecting the sector’s close coupling to trading volumes and token valuations, and in some cases fell even more sharply than the underlying assets under market stress.
Japanese bank Mizuho said in a report last week that part of Circle’s rally may be linked to the recent rise in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude oil prices could spark renewed inflation concerns, the bank said, potentially dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
William Blair analysts said investors had previously been too bearish on Circle amid regulatory uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts. Now the company sees signs that the market is beginning to recognize the company’s core thesis: stablecoins can become a key layer in the global payment infrastructure.
USDC may emerge as one of a handful of dominant standards in cross-border trading, citing its liquidity, first-mover advantage and integration across crypto networks, according to the analysts.
The report also pointed to growing activity across Circle’s payments and infrastructure stack, including its stablecoin payment network, as evidence that the market for stablecoin-based settlement is starting to take shape.
While other companies and technology platforms have launched their own stablecoins, the report said Circle’s minting, cross-chain transfer and payment orchestration infrastructure could provide a lasting competitive moat as the sector evolves.
Read more: How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the rise in Circle’s stock
