Circle’s (CRCL) USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target for the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.
Shares rose 1% in early trading to $115.40 and are up about 95% from their February lows.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins boosted their Circle estimates, citing “USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agent trade expectations.”
Stablecoins, digital tokens backed by reserves such as fiat currency or gold, serve as key payment and settlement rails in the crypto-economy, particularly for trade and cross-border transfers. The sector is dominated by Tether’s USDT with a market capitalization of USD 143 billion, followed by Circle’s USDC at USD 78 billion.
According to their Friday report, USDC has recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, compared to $1.3 trillion for USDT. That gives USDC a share of around 64% of adjusted volumes, a sharp reversal from 2019-2025 when Tether consistently led and USDC averaged around 30% share.
The analysts said the shift matters because the long-term winner among stablecoins is likely to be determined by real economic use rather than market capitalization alone. Standard Chartered expects the stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Reflecting stronger USDC activity and expanding use cases, the Mizuho analysts raised several long-term Circle forecasts. They now expect “meaningful wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a previous estimate of 10 million, helping lift the projected USDC market cap to $139 billion from $123 billion.
Circle has outperformed other crypto-linked stocks recently.
William Blair analysts said in a Thursday note that while the recent gains could easily be linked to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other factors are likely driving the move.
They instead pointed to the resilience of USDC’s market cap despite the broader crypto downturn, along with increasing investor recognition of Circle’s economic model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.
Other analysts pointed to a positioning-driven short squeeze, rather than fundamentals, as the driving force behind the recent rally in shares.
While the company delivered strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s outsized reaction after earnings was driven more by crowded short bets heading to print than by strong financials, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
Read more: Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power, says one bullish Wall Street analyst
