Wall Street bank Citigroup is raising expectations for Coinbase (COIN) amid a risk-on mood in the markets.
In a Friday note to clients, the bank’s analysts lowered their price target on the crypto exchange to $400 from $505, citing weaker trading volumes, softer institutional activity and continued uncertainty around the timing of US crypto legislation.
The new $400 price target still represents more than a doubling in price from COIN’s close last night at $146. The same analyst team raised its price target on COIN to $505 in July 2025 as the stock hit an all-time high near $450.
Shares are up 6% pre-market on Friday as crypto markets recover slightly from Thursday’s crash, which saw bitcoin plunge as low as $60,000.
Despite the short-term reset, the firm reiterated its buy/high-risk rating and called Coinbase the category leader and a primary beneficiary of potential crypto reform. Progress with CLARITY, Citi said, remains the key catalyst for reviving the stock’s momentum.
The bank now expects the Senate’s negotiations on the market structure bill to extend beyond 2026, even if the groundwork continues.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his company had withdrawn support for a comprehensive digital asset law after finding provisions that could have harmed consumers and stifled competition.
The bill has repeatedly lost steam as crypto and banking lobbyists clash over the stablecoin dividend, while lawmakers from both parties remain deadlocked on several other provisions.
Marking current crypto prices to the market, analysts led by Peter Christiansen cut their near-term forecasts and trimmed Coinbase’s fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue by about 10% to $1.69 billion, about 4% below consensus.
After accounting for a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline in crypto holdings and Coinbase’s stake in Circle ( CRCL ), analysts are now forecasting a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64.
Coinbase will release financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 after the close on February 12.
Read more: Citi Says CLARITY Act Boosts But DeFi Fight May Stop Crypto Bill
